Expand Energy (EXE)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.91-1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
EXE — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-26
Vice President – Accounting & Controller — Gregory M. Larson: Mr. Larson resigned from his position without a named successor.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows strong operations and helps growth.
Supportive ifQ3 production guidance is confirmed at or above 7.5 Bcfe/d.
Worry ifQ3 production guidance is lowered below 7.5 Bcfe/d.
Why it matters: Hitting the $750 million free cash flow target shows the marketing plan works.
Supportive ifReported incremental free cash flow of $750 million or more for the year.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls short of $750 million, indicating issues with the marketing strategy.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing and how the market reacts.
Watch forQ2 earnings beat expectations with strong cash flow and production numbers.
Also watch forQ2 earnings miss expectations, showing weak cash flow or production.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps financial health and allows for growth.
Supportive ifThere is news of debt reduction over $1 billion for 2026.
Worry ifDebt levels are unchanged or going up.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $295 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,886 loss on $10,000 · 28.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Running more rigs can boost production. This is key for meeting growth targets.
Supportive ifThe company reports operating 11 or more rigs by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifRig count remains below 10 by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Investing in production is crucial for future growth. Updates will show commitment.
Supportive ifThe company will share news about a project or partnership for the $2.85 billion investment.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the planned investment are reported.
Why it matters: News on share buybacks shows good cash flow. It shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $150 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases are less than $150 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows financial health. It also shows commitment to returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.575 confirmed for Q2 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment is reduced or suspended for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Cutting debt makes finances stronger. It also lets the company invest more.
Supportive ifReported total debt reduction of at least $1 billion for the year.
Worry ifIf total debt goes below $1 billion, it raises worries about finances.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level would show strong operations and cash flow.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings reported above $4.81 per share.
Worry ifQ2 earnings reported below $4.81 per share.
Why it matters: Confirming production guidance of 7.5 Bcfe/d shows good operations and market need.
Supportive ifThey reported average daily production of 7.5 Bcfe/d or more.
Worry ifIf production drops below 7.4 Bcfe/d, it may mean problems in operations or market.
Why it matters: The investment decision on the Delfin SPA could impact future cash flows and market reach.
Watch forFinal investment decision on the Delfin SPA is made and announced.
Also watch forThe investment decision on the Delfin SPA is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: A strong CFO can help with money management and strategy. This could raise shareholder value.
Supportive ifGood changes in money strategy or guidance came after the CFO's appointment.
Worry ifThere are no clear changes in how money is managed. There are also no ongoing problems with operations.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing and how the market reacts.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a big rise in revenue and profit from last year.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals a decline in revenue or profit compared to last year.
Why it matters: Completing this deal will make Expand Energy a stronger gas company.
Supportive ifTwin Eagle is now part of the company. The deal is complete and operations are updated.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or is not completed as planned.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows good marketing and strong cash flow.
Supportive ifReported free cash flow for Q3 reaches or exceeds $750 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q3 falls below $750 million.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps financial health and allows for future investments.
Supportive ifNet debt reduction exceeds $1 billion by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNet debt reduction is less than $1 billion by year-end 2026.