Expand Energy (EXE)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$85.34-2.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EXE — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-19
CEO — Daniel E. Brown: The filing announces the appointment of an external candidate as President and CEO, which is a significant management change but not a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: Debt was $4.6 billion after a $500 million note sale. Lower debt would support the stated goal of keeping balance-sheet room.
Supportive ifA later report shows total debt below $4.6 billion and leverage at or below 0.8x.
Worry ifA later report shows total debt above $4.6 billion or leverage above 0.8x.
Why it matters: The full-year range is a clear test of the operating plan. Production below the range would miss management's stated outlook.
Watch forReported 2026 average daily production is at or above 7.45 Bcfe/d and no higher than 7.55 Bcfe/d.
Also watch forReported 2026 average daily production is below 7.45 Bcfe/d or above 7.55 Bcfe/d.
Why it matters: The company raised its capital plan to about $3 billion. Spending far above that level could limit cash for debt cuts and share repurchases.
Worry ifCapital spending for all of 2026 tops $3.1 billion.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 capital spending is $3.0 billion or less.
Why it matters: Danny Brown became CEO on October 26. His early plan can show how the company will turn its gas reach into lasting results.
Watch forBrown names clear steps to grow LNG or gas marketing, with dates or targets.
Also watch forBrown gives no clear steps or targets for LNG and gas marketing in the next two earnings updates.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $298 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,120 loss on $10,000 · 31.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.