Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Exodus Movement Inc (EXOD)
AMEXInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.92-16.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXOD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete Baanx US Corp. acquisition | Exodus aims to grow revenue above $22.7M next quarter by completing the Baanx US acquisition. | Improving | Acquisition fails or is significantly delayed beyond 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is integrating acquisitions and losses have narrowed, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The evidence labels the pricing as justified, with low fragility rather than a full stack of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence. The expectations gap is negative, but no specific valuation comparison with peers is provided, so whether EXOD is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear.
Near term, erratic earnings surprises and a 47% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk. For the multi-year view, the acquired businesses have begun contributing to revenue, and losses narrowed from Q1 to Q2 2026, though operating income remained negative. Revenue diversification is still a work in progress, and company quality fell recently even as the management score rose.
A guidance cut on the next call would add to the earnings concerns. The thesis also depends on whether diversification efforts and acquisition integration can support stronger financial performance. Fed rate cuts and stabilization among major technology peers could help the sector backdrop, but neither is assured by the evidence.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EXOD remains an execution-led thesis with early progress on integration and losses, offset by fragile earnings quality and high risk. The central question is whether diversification and improving results can become consistent. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is working to fix its earnings miss and improve financial results. |
| Broken |
| Net income declines further below -$32.14M |
Net income: $-18.612M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income improves above -$32.14M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-18,612,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at or above $22.7M next quarter | Exodus aims to grow revenue above $22.7M next quarter by completing the Baanx US acquisition. | Intact | Revenue falls below $22.7M next quarter | Revenue: $26.228M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22.7 USD_MILLIONS. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 10, 202626,228,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.55 → $-0.59 · observed estimates
$0.19B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.39 | $221,470,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.39 | $221,470,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.39 | $221,470,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.39 | $221,470,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.39 | $221,470,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.39 | $221,470,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.39 | $221,470,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.39 | $231,170,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.24 | $231,170,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.24 | $231,170,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.24 | $231,170,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.55 | $187,313,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.31 | $187,513,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.01 | $161,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.03 | $161,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.65 | $151,125,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.59 | $149,282,200 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.