Exodus Movement Inc (EXOD)
AMEXInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.41+1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXOD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 34.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EXOD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Successful partnerships with UFC and Latin American platforms can drive new revenue streams. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifPartnerships lead to more transaction volume in the next quarters.
Worry ifPartnerships do not bring in enough transactions. They also fail to attract user interest.
Why it matters: Revenue growth from the new acquisition is key to Exodus's strategy. It shows if the integration is successful.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is higher than Q2. This shows good work with Monavate and Baanx.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines or stays flat compared to Q2 revenue of $26.2 million.
Why it matters: Changes in user numbers show how well the platform is doing and if customers care.
Watch forMonthly active users rise above 1.5 million.
Also watch forMonthly active users fall below 1.5 million.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for stability and growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive for the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative or gets worse.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$405 on $10,000 · ±4.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,033 loss on $10,000 · 10.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,550 loss on $10,000 · 85.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A continued drop in revenue would signal ongoing struggles in the business model.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue down year over year worse than $22.7 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help Exodus grow. It may also improve its market position.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will show that the acquisition is done.
Worry ifThere may be more delays or problems with the acquisition process.
Why it matters: If integration works well, it will help the acquisition plan. This is key for future revenue.
Watch forManagement reports early signs of success from the integration. This could bring good benefits.
Also watch forManagement reports issues or delays with the integration process. This could cause problems.
Why it matters: Higher revenue shows that buying Monavate and Baanx is boosting sales. This means better integration and market growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $26.2 million. This shows growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $26.2 million. This suggests problems with integration or market issues.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better money management and efficiency. It shows progress in financial performance.
Supportive ifNet loss reported below $18.6 million for Q3.
Worry ifNet loss was above $18.6 million. This suggests ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: Good cash flow management is key for stability and growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Fixing the earnings miss is key to restoring investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income shows a positive change, getting closer to breakeven.
Worry ifNet income keeps falling or stays very negative.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. It will also give hints about the future.
Watch forThe next earnings date will be announced with good news or better numbers.
Also watch forNo announcement of earnings date or negative guidance.
Why it matters: More funded users mean stronger customer engagement. This could lead to more revenue.
Supportive ifQuarterly funded users reported at or above 1.4 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifQuarterly funded users fall below 1.4 million for Q2 2026.