Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.72-2.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.46 → 2.47 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EZPW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at least $0.58 next quarter | Earnings per share are guided at $0.58 next quarter, showing stable profit. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $0.34 (2025-Q3 actual) next quarter | Diluted EPS: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.58. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EZPW is an acquisition-led growth story in the pawn-store business, with management delivering on store expansion and growth priorities. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and recent performance is neutral overall.
Valuation is described as justified, with a durable premium of 1.5 versus peers. Expectations appear somewhat demanding, as the expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not show broad fragility in the current setup.
Near term, recent results and management execution support continued revenue and operating progress, though adjusted EBITDA eased in the latest quarter shown. The next guidance update is a risk, and the history of a deep miss plus the company’s smaller size keeps some uncertainty in the picture.
The multi-year thesis depends on EZCORP continuing to expand stores through acquisitions and turning that footprint into revenue and profit growth. Near term, a guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued strength at financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business case rests on acquisition execution and sustained operating growth, with valuation already carrying a peer premium. Recent evidence keeps the thesis intact, but guidance and rate conditions remain important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in EZCORP, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Continue acquisitions to grow store count. |
| Intact |
| No new acquisitions or store growth stalls over next 4 quarters |
Acquisitions active (107 stores added Jan 2026) EZCORP acquired 107 pawn stores in Jan 2026 and purchased remaining 12.3% stake in May 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $67.8M | Profit improves with operating income rising $7.2M from Q1 to Q2. | Broken | Operating income falls below $60.6M (2026-Q1 level) next quarter | Operating income: $54.82M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $67.8M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202654,820,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $435M next quarter | Earnings per share are guided at $0.58 next quarter, showing stable profit. | Intact | Revenue falls below $318.9M (2025-Q3 level) next quarter | Revenue: $418.748M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $434.9M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 2026418,748,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.46 → $2.47 · observed estimates
$1.96B → $1.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.46 | $1,960,061,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.47 | $1,960,063,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.