EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.32+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EZPW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: The growth rate of pawn loans shows demand for EZCORP's services. A strong growth rate indicates healthy business momentum.
Supportive ifPawn loans outstanding (PLO) growth rate exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifPLO growth rate falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better pricing and efficiency. This shows strong demand for pawn services.
Supportive ifGross profit margin exceeds 36% in Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 34% in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong sales of jewelry scrap show good gold prices and demand. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifJewelry scrap sales grow more than 200% year over year.
Worry ifJewelry scrap sales grow less than 200% year over year.
Why it matters: Good integration will improve efficiency and profits. This will help future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says SMG stores did better within 6 months of being bought.
Worry ifManagement says there are problems or delays in merging SMG stores.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$208 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $385 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,422 loss on $10,000 · 24.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More acquisitions would support growth plans and show strong market expansion. This is key for EZCORP's strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new acquisition of at least 5 pawn stores.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: PLO growth is key to revenue and profit. Slower growth may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifPLO growth below 30% year over year in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifPLO growth remains above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for making money. A drop may show market problems.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth below 20% year over year in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth remains above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Acquisitions in Latin America can boost market share and revenue. This aligns with growth goals.
Supportive ifNew store purchases in Latin America will be announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new store purchases will be announced in Latin America next quarter.
Why it matters: If Founders and SMG integrate well, it can increase growth and profits. It shows how well management can execute.
Supportive ifManagement says they are integrating Founders and SMG well. They see better operations.
Worry ifManagement says there are problems or delays in integrating Founders and SMG.
Why it matters: Acquisitions drive growth and market presence. New stores can enhance revenue potential.
Supportive ifNews about acquiring more than 50 new stores in one deal.
Worry ifNo big acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps support growth plans and keeps finances stable.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $70 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $50 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can greatly increase growth and market presence.
Supportive ifEZCORP announces acquisitions of more than 50 stores in 2026.
Worry ifNo acquisitions adding more than 50 stores in 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show a slowdown. This could affect EZCORP.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: More stores in Latin America show that EZCORP is growing. This means they are gaining market share.
Supportive ifStore count in Latin America increases by more than 30 stores in Q3.
Worry ifStore count in Latin America increases by fewer than 10 stores in Q3.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition will show EZCORP's commitment to growth through expansion. It could boost store count and revenue.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Founders One is now complete. It is part of operations.
Worry ifThe acquisition has delays or problems. These issues slow down growth plans.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA growth is important for making money. A slowdown may show problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth below 40% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth above 50% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income means lower costs and more profit. This helps long-term success.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by over 5% each quarter.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand and attract customers. Sustained growth is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.