Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.04-0.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.35 → 3.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FBIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex stays between $110 million and $125 million in 2026 | The company keeps capital spending between $110 million and $125 million. | Intact | Capex exceeds $130 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $23.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $110M-$125M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202623,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical industrial business with a fragile earnings profile, elevated risk, and a sector backdrop that is a headwind. The long-term thesis remains in watch status: recent results show limited progress on execution, while confidence in the assessment has eased to medium.
FBIN is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation signal is mixed: the model shows a 61% premium to peers and a modest negative expectations gap. Fragile execution is not fully reflected in the priced-in assessment, which is tagged justified with low fragility, so the valuation alone does not remove the concern about results.
Near term, results may remain uneven: operating income fell from $121.6 million in 2025-Q4 to a $9.0 million loss in 2026-Q2, and full-year free cash flow guidance was reduced in August. Management has kept its focus on execution, costs, and higher-return investment, but delivery is mixed; the Fiberon sale is a concrete portfolio action, while recent CFO and COO transitions add uncertainty.
The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor, given the history of erratic earnings surprises and their downward trend. Over the multi-year view, progress on profitability and execution matters, alongside signals from sector peers JCI, MAS, and CSL: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on whether FBIN can turn its stated execution and cost priorities into steadier profitability, while navigating sector headwinds and leadership changes. The evidence is mixed, and the long-term thesis remains under watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow should reach about $375 million in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $350 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $179.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $375M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026179,300,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
New CEO leads to stronger management by end of 2026 | Fortune Brands has a new CEO to improve the company. | Improving | No progress in leadership or strategy by end 2026 | Qualitative: Leadership stable (CFO hired, Board restructured) but Q3 sales decline CFO hired, board restructured, $70M savings target set, but Q3 sales declined and Fiberon impaired. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin recovers toward 11% by FY26 end | A primary condition in Fortune Brands Innovations's published investment case. The stated target is >=11%. | Under Pressure | Operating margin stays below 8% through FY26 | Operating margin: 5.42% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20265.423364 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stays near $4.39 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Fortune Brands Innovations's published investment case. The stated target is ~$4.39B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $4.3 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.114B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.39B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261,113,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.59 → $3.04 · observed estimates
$4.49B → $4.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.59 | $4,493,876,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.59 | $4,493,876,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.59 | $4,493,876,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.57 | $4,481,936,754 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.57 | $4,481,936,754 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.57 | $4,481,936,754 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.57 | $4,481,936,754 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.58 | $4,482,626,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.58 | $4,482,626,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.58 | $4,482,626,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.58 | $4,482,626,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.58 | $4,482,626,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.58 | $4,482,626,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.58 | $4,482,626,986 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.47 | $4,468,517,528 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.39 | $4,450,405,251 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.39 | $4,450,405,251 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.39 | $4,450,405,251 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.39 | $4,450,405,251 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.39 | $4,450,405,251 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.37 | $4,452,042,095 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.37 | $4,452,042,095 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.37 | $4,452,042,095 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.37 | $4,452,042,095 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.37 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.36 | $4,452,053,963 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.36 | $4,452,053,963 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.36 | $4,452,053,963 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.36 | $4,452,067,095 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.35 | $4,450,379,595 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.36 | $4,448,792,560 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.35 | $4,439,103,731 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.34 | $4,436,691,966 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.34 | $4,436,691,966 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.35 | $4,437,576,407 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.35 | $4,437,576,407 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.34 | $4,433,580,584 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.34 | $4,433,680,584 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.32 | $4,431,531,933 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.32 | $4,431,531,933 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.32 | $4,431,531,933 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.31 | $4,428,599,160 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.31 | $4,428,599,160 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.30 | $4,417,702,295 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.29 | $4,411,957,850 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.04 | $4,301,905,177 | 12 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.