Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FB Financial Corp. (FBK)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$54.27-2.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.16 → 5.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share at or above $0.21 | FB Financial keeps raising its dividend to $0.21 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.21 | Dividend per share: $0.21 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.21 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 20260.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FBK is a growth-oriented financial company whose recent results and organic loan and deposit growth are strong. The long-term thesis is intact, and company momentum has improved, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution is mixed on efficiency.
FBK is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence tags expectations as stretched. The expectations gap is modest, while the priced-in fragility is low, so the market does not appear to reflect the full combination of weak execution quality and elevated risk.
Near term, strong loan and deposit growth supports the business, while efficiency progress remains uneven and expenses rose in the latest quarter. Recent earnings were in line, but a history of misses and fragile earnings quality leave some risk of weaker results or guidance.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining organic growth while improving expense control. A guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength among financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FBK’s growth record supports an intact long-term thesis, but its premium valuation leaves limited room for execution to weaken. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected to grow to $2.45 by the end of 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.45 by end of 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $1.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.45 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 2, 20261.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes or grows above $225 million quarterly | A primary condition in FB Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=225 million USD. | Broken | Revenue falls below $225 million quarterly | Revenue: $236.107M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=225 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 2026236,107,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain share repurchase plan up to $175 million | It has a strong buyback plan for $175 million. | Intact | Buyback plan is reduced or canceled | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.14 → $5.05 · observed estimates
$0.76B → $0.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.14 | $761,908,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.14 | $761,908,857 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.14 | $762,280,286 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.14 | $758,566,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.15 | $759,617,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.16 | $760,145,571 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.16 | $760,145,571 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.16 | $760,145,571 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.16 | $760,145,571 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.16 | $760,145,571 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.16 | $760,145,571 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.17 | $760,145,571 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.17 | $760,145,571 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.17 | $760,145,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.17 | $760,145,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.17 | $760,145,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.05 | $748,119,986 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.