FB Financial Corp. (FBK)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$56.990.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers
FBK — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 13, 2026, FB Financial Corporation (“ FB Financial ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 (the “ Earnings Release ”). A copy of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K (this “ Report ”).
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans can show credit problems. This affects profit and risk management.
Worry ifNonperforming loans as a percentage of total loans above 1.5%.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans are below 1.5%. This shows credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact FBK's performance. Investors will watch for signs of deceleration.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median in the next quarter.
Why it matters: NIM trends will show how well the company is managing interest income versus costs.
Watch forNIM rises above 3.94%. This shows better management of interest income.
Also watch forNIM falls below 3.94%. This shows worse management of interest income.
Why it matters: Big buybacks show management trusts the company's value. They can help the share price.
Supportive ifShare buybacks over $50 million will be announced next quarter.
Worry ifNo big share buyback announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Loan growth trends indicate demand and economic health. Slowing growth may raise concerns.
Watch forLoans held for investment grow by more than 5% quarter over quarter.
Also watch forLoans held for investment grow by less than 2% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends signals strong financial health and commitment to shareholders. This could attract more investors.
Supportive ifA further increase in dividend per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo increase or a decrease in dividend per share in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is important. It helps us see how well the company is doing.
Watch forQ2 revenue exceeds $225.4 million, showing growth from Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 revenue is below $225.4 million. This shows a continued decline.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost management. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio drops to below 52% in Q3.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio stays above 52% in Q3.
Why it matters: The buyback plan shows the company's strong finances. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company finishes the $175 million buyback. This shows they are making good progress.
Worry ifThere are no updates or a pause in the buyback plan. This may show financial strain.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth is crucial for long-term success. Investors will monitor if growth continues or slows.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains above 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean credit quality problems. This could hurt future earnings and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 0.10% of average loans HFI.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below 0.05%.
Why it matters: The stock buyback could signal strong capital management and support share prices.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases at least $50 million worth of stock by Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company does not repurchase any shares by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong finances. They also show a commitment to giving back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces an increase in the dividend per share beyond $0.21.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend per share. This may show financial caution.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for FB Financial's earnings. A drop below 10% may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 loans held for investment growth below 10% annualized.
Less concerning ifQ3 loans held for investment growth at or above 10% annualized.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs can signal credit quality issues. A rise above 0.10% may raise concerns.
Worry ifNet charge-offs ratio rises above 0.10%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs ratio remains at or below 0.10%.
Why it matters: High share buybacks show confidence in the company. Over 2% may help investors.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are over 2% of shares.
Worry ifShare buybacks stay below 2% of shares.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,708 loss on $10,000 · 17.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.