Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First BanCorp (Puerto Rico) (FBP)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.93-2.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.55 → 2.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FBP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share increase to at least $0.20 in 2026-Q1 | Dividends rose from $0.18 to $0.20 per share, rewarding shareholders. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.18 in any future quarter | Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.20 dividend per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FBP is a regional financial business with a value-oriented profile, rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is mixed: management is delivering on capital deployment and reported loan growth, while financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is described as cheap, though it carries a durable premium versus peers. The expectations gap is small, and priced-in fragility is low, so the current setup appears justified rather than dependent on highly optimistic assumptions.
Near term, loan growth and recent earnings beats support the business, while expenses increased year over year in the latest reported quarter. Management has announced expanded capital returns, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk; the stated miss risk is low, with a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses worth noting.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether loan growth continues across operating markets and expenses remain controlled. Guidance cuts or rate cuts from the current level are unfavorable scenarios, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FBP has tangible support from loan growth and capital returns, but below-cohort performance and execution risks keep the long-term thesis in watch mode. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income growth to at least $88.8 million in 2026-Q1 |
| Operating income increased from $100.3 million to $114.3 million, showing good expense control. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $77 million in any future quarter |
Net income: $96.115M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $88.8 million net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202696,115,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $114.3 million in 2026-Q1 | Operating income increased from $100.3 million to $114.3 million, showing good expense control. | Intact | operating income falls below $100 million in any future quarter | Operating income: $115.262M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $114.3 million operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 2026115,262,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to avoid decline worse than -8% next year | A primary condition in First BanCorp (Puerto Rico)'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -8% YoY. | Intact | revenue declines more than -8% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.40 → $2.52 · observed estimates
$1.11B → $1.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.40 | $1,114,121,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.51 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.51 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.51 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.51 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,170 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,170 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.52 | $1,134,534,317 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.55 | $1,137,536,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.55 | $1,137,669,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.55 | $1,137,669,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.55 | $1,137,669,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.55 | $1,137,669,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.55 | $1,137,669,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.55 | $1,137,669,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.54 | $1,136,090,833 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.58 | $1,136,090,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.57 | $1,132,174,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.57 | $1,132,174,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.55 | $1,119,799,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.55 | $1,119,799,833 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.55 | $1,119,799,833 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.55 | $1,119,799,833 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.52 | $1,113,816,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.52 | $1,113,816,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.52 | $1,113,816,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.52 | $1,113,816,500 | 6 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.