First BanCorp (Puerto Rico) (FBP)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.51+0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FBP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FBP — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-01
Chief Financial Officer — Said Ortiz: Orlando Berges retired and entered into a consulting agreement, while Said Ortiz was appointed as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops below its median, it may signal a slowdown affecting First BanCorp.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: A wider net interest margin can boost profits. A narrower margin may show problems.
Watch forNet interest margin increases above 4.75% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 4.68% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows good performance and strong management. It builds investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $96.1 million, the amount reported for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 falls below $88.8 million, the amount reported for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can impact financial plans and operations. A smooth change is key for stability.
Watch forOrtiz successfully carries out financial plans without issues. Financial metrics stay the same or improve.
Also watch forFinancial metrics drop a lot. This shows problems with the leadership change.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,383 loss on $10,000 · 13.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal potential challenges in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A new CFO may change financial strategy and reporting. Stability is important for investors.
Watch forThe new CFO, Said Ortiz, will keep or improve financial reporting and performance.
Also watch forFinancial reports show issues or drops in performance after the change.
Why it matters: A stable or rising net interest margin shows good management of interest income and costs. This is key for profits.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin stays above 4.80%. This shows strong management of interest income.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 4.70%. This may show problems in making interest income.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets could mean credit problems. This would hurt overall profits.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are still below $110 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets rise above $120 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows the company is doing well financially.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2026 reported above $25 million, which is a 10% increase from Q1.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Steady loan growth shows strong demand and good lending. This helps overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifTotal loan growth exceeds 20% YoY in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoan growth is below 10% from last year. This may mean weaker demand or more competition.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may signal credit quality issues. This could affect profit and investor feelings.
Worry ifQ3 net charge-offs reported above 0.65% of average loans.
Less concerning ifQ3 net charge-offs reported below 0.65% of average loans.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong financial health. This shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share goes above $0.20 in the next announcement.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.20 or decreases in the next announcement.
Why it matters: More core customer deposits show strong customer ties. This helps funding stability.
Supportive ifCore customer deposits increase by more than $158.5 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCore customer deposits decline or grow less than $158.5 million.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows the company is financially strong and well-managed.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $96.1 million, showing over 20% growth from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net income grows less than 10% YoY, indicating potential weakness in performance.
Why it matters: More loans mean strong demand. This shows growth in business activity.
Supportive ifIn Q3, loan originations are over $1.5 billion. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifIn Q3, loan originations are below $1.2 billion. This suggests weaker demand.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases from $0.20 in Q2 2026 to at least $0.22 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIf the dividend per share stays at $0.20 or goes down, it shows money issues.