Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (FBRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.28-2.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.12 → 0.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FBRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend near $0.20 per share | Franklin BSP Realty Trust keeps paying a dividend near $0.20 per share. | Broken | dividend per share falls below $0.20 next year | Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.20 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk, income-oriented real estate finance business with a fragile earnings profile, rather than a proven steady compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent results have been weak, and confidence in the valuation evidence is low.
The valuation measure rose from 44.2 to 67.9, and FBRT carries a 2.03 premium versus peers, so the evidence points to an expensive valuation. The expectations gap is 0.37, while the priced-in assessment is unjustified because valuation looks expensive relative to weak execution; the model’s confidence is low.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and an elevated risk of another miss leave results vulnerable. In Q3, FBRT reported $60.5 million of repurchases with $0.55 per diluted share of book value accretion, along with a $61.3 billion servicing portfolio and $670.4 million of new loan commitments; however, sustained progress is not established. Resolving ten foreclosure-owned properties totaling $339.5 million remains a stated priority, but the evidence does not show whether that total improved.
Over the next few quarters, a reduction in rates from 3.88% could support the real estate sector, while weaker results or guidance from sector peers could remove that support. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and continued earnings misses would reinforce doubts about execution. Over the multi-year view, the key question is whether management can resolve legacy assets and make agency-business growth and repurchase accretion repeatable.
For the 1-to-3-year view, FBRT combines some concrete operating actions with weak results, elevated risk, and a valuation that appears expensive relative to execution. The thesis depends on sustained operating progress and fewer earnings disappointments, but the evidence remains limited. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect earnings per share to rise to about $1.01 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.01 in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Close securitization deals near $880 million | It actively sells mortgages through securitization, raising about $880 million recently. | Intact | securitization volume falls below $880 million next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase over 4 million shares at $9.13 each | The company bought back over 4 million shares to boost value. | Improving | share repurchases fall below 4 million shares next year | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.21 → $0.92 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.21 | $325,293,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.21 | $325,293,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.19 | $330,970,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.21 | $325,293,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.21 | $325,293,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.19 | $333,220,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.19 | $333,220,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.19 | $333,220,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.18 | $330,720,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.18 | $322,038,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.18 | $322,038,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.18 | $322,038,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.18 | $322,038,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.17 | $308,738,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.17 | $308,738,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.17 | $308,738,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.17 | $308,738,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.17 | $308,738,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.18 | $330,778,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.17 | $320,803,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.14 | $311,303,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.14 | $311,303,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.14 | $311,303,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.14 | $311,303,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.14 | $311,303,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.12 | $310,383,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.12 | $308,563,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.11 | $307,043,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.11 | $307,043,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.09 | $301,223,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.00 | $301,223,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.00 | $301,223,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.00 | $301,223,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.00 | $301,223,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.92 | $288,088,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.92 | $288,088,200 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.