Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (FBRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.59+0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FBRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FBRT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and supplemental slide presentation reporting the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Copies of the press release and supplemental slide presentation are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) sha…
Why it matters: If earnings drop below this amount, it shows weaker earnings. This may affect dividends.
Worry ifQ2 earnings were below $13 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings were above $13 million.
Why it matters: Increasing loan commitments would show growth in the core portfolio and confidence in the market.
Supportive ifThe company announces new loans over $200 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifNew loan commitments fall below $100 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in new loan commitments signals weaker growth in the core portfolio. This could affect future earnings.
Worry ifNew loan commitments fall below $166.7 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNew loan commitments rise above $200 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This report shows how the company is doing. It also shares plans for the future.
Watch forEarnings report shows improved metrics compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows more drops in key financial numbers.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $289 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,938 loss on $10,000 · 29.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend can show how management views earnings. This impacts investor confidence.
Watch forQuarterly common stock dividend remains at $0.20 or increases in the next quarter.
Also watch forThe quarterly common stock dividend may drop below $0.20 next quarter.
Why it matters: Fixing old assets can help the company’s finances and lower risk. It shows how well management is doing.
Supportive ifThe company will report that it fixed at least two old assets next quarter.
Worry ifThere are no updates on old assets or more delays in fixing them.
Why it matters: A decline would raise concerns about the company's ability to maintain value.
Worry ifBook value per share reported below $14.24 for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifBook value per share reported above $14.50 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in book value per share shows better financial health. This can attract investors.
Supportive ifBook value per diluted common share increases to above $14.30 in the next quarter.
Worry ifBook value per diluted common share declines below $14.20 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Exceeding this threshold would show strong earnings growth and support the dividend policy.
Supportive ifDistributable earnings were more than $30 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDistributable earnings were less than $25 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks may show management's trust in the company. It could raise book value.
Supportive ifThe company announces share buybacks of over $25 million.
Worry ifThe company announces no new share buybacks or cuts the buyback amount.
Why it matters: Distributable earnings are important for paying dividends. If they drop below $0.25, it means trouble.
Worry ifDistributable earnings were less than $0.25 per diluted common share for Q3.
Less concerning ifDistributable earnings were at or above $0.25 per diluted common share for Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in the core portfolio shows slowing loan growth. This could hurt earnings.
Worry ifCore portfolio balance is expected to be below $4.3 billion in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifCore portfolio balance is still above $4.3 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows stable earnings. It also shows management's trust in cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.20 per share for Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show that management wants to raise book value.
Supportive ifThere is news of more share buybacks beyond the $50 million allowed through 2026.
Worry ifNo further announcements on share repurchases and a pause in the program.