Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Citizens BancShares Inc/NC (FCNCA)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2304.72-1.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
202.85 → 216.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FCNCA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Prudent capital management with debt issuance | A supporting condition in First Citizens BancShares Inc/NC's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain capital issuance at or above $500M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | No capital issuance or reduction below $500M in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank investment with a balance-sheet repair and capital-return angle, rather than a clear-cut durable compounder or turnaround. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is delivering on key priorities, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and the expectations gap is small, so the evidence suggests the market’s assumptions are broadly aligned with the current setup. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility rather than a combination of expensive valuation and weak execution.
Near term, recent results include an earnings beat, while loans, deposits, and note repayments show progress on management’s stated priorities. Repurchases continue, though quarterly amounts have been lower than in the first quarter; earnings quality remains fragile, and the risk of a miss is assessed as low but not absent.
The multi-year view depends on continued progress in repaying the Purchase Money Note while maintaining balanced loan and deposit growth. Near-term concerns include a guidance cut or rate cuts; continued strength among financial-sector peers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FCNCA’s thesis has tangible support from balance-sheet progress and recurring capital returns, but its below-cohort performance and fragile earnings quality keep the setup under watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| First Citizens BancShares grows earnings steadily with EPS rising from $34.47 to $43.08 in recent quarters. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below 40 USD per share in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $51.23 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=43.0 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 202651.23 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain strong operating cash flow | Cash flow remains strong, supporting operations and investments. | Broken | Operating cash flow falls below 850 million USD over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $0 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=850 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near recent levels | A primary condition in First Citizens BancShares Inc/NC's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.43 billion USD. | Intact | Revenue falls below 2.3 billion USD in FY26 | Revenue: $3.699B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.43 billion USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 20263,699,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$199.84 → $216.64 · observed estimates
$9.27B → $9.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $199.84 | $9,265,453,906 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $197.26 | $9,208,115,530 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $197.26 | $9,208,115,530 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $198.55 | $9,251,919,780 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $200.82 | $9,246,605,865 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $197.95 | $9,303,453,120 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $200.35 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $200.35 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $200.35 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $197.82 | $9,311,743,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $197.82 | $9,311,743,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $197.82 | $9,311,743,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $197.82 | $9,311,743,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $197.82 | $9,311,743,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $200.09 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $197.32 | $9,298,143,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $197.32 | $9,298,143,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $197.32 | $9,298,143,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $197.32 | $9,298,143,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $197.32 | $9,298,143,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $197.32 | $9,298,143,740 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $200.09 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $200.09 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $200.09 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $200.09 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $200.09 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $200.09 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $200.22 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $200.22 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $200.22 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $199.89 | $9,407,900,971 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $199.89 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $199.89 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $199.89 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $199.89 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $199.89 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $199.89 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $199.88 | $9,308,477,505 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $199.88 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $199.88 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $199.88 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $199.88 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $199.88 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $199.88 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $199.88 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $199.92 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $199.92 | $9,308,477,505 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $199.92 | $9,292,064,587 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $199.92 | $9,292,064,587 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $199.92 | $9,292,064,587 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $199.92 | $9,292,064,587 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $199.92 | $9,292,064,587 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $199.92 | $9,292,064,587 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $199.92 | $9,292,064,587 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $201.22 | $9,333,208,977 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $201.22 | $9,333,208,977 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $201.22 | $9,333,208,977 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $201.22 | $9,333,208,977 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $202.85 | $9,331,708,977 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $201.89 | $9,331,708,977 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $201.89 | $9,331,708,977 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $202.32 | $9,356,050,772 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $205.51 | $9,390,875,643 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $205.51 | $9,390,875,643 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $205.51 | $9,390,875,643 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $205.51 | $9,390,875,643 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $210.84 | $9,517,011,653 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $212.36 | $9,545,703,339 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $212.36 | $9,545,703,339 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $216.56 | $9,620,917,624 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $216.56 | $9,620,917,624 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $216.56 | $9,620,917,624 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $216.56 | $9,620,917,624 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $216.64 | $9,620,917,624 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $216.64 | $9,620,917,624 | 9 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.