First Citizens BancShares Inc/NC (FCNCA)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2304.72-1.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCNCA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FCNCA — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-09-14
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On September 11, 2026, First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), filed a certificate of designation (the “Certificate of Designation”) with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware, establishing the rights, preferences, privileges, qualifications, restrictions and limitations of a new series of its preferred stock designated as the “7.500% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series F”, par value $…
Why it matters: Q3 net charge-offs were 0.27% of average loans. A rise would reverse recent improvement in this credit measure.
Worry ifQuarterly net charge-offs rise above 0.30% of average loans.
Less concerning ifQuarterly net charge-offs stay at or below 0.27% of average loans. Nonaccrual loans stay below 0.87% of loans.
Why it matters: Fund Banking drove much of Q3 loan growth. A sharp slowdown would weaken a key source of balance growth.
Watch forCommercial Bank loans rise again, with Fund Banking named as the main source of growth.
Also watch forCommercial Bank loans fall, or the next report names a decline in Fund Banking loans.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but its trend is easing. A drop below its median would add pressure to the sector backdrop.
Worry ifThe next sector update reports revenue growth below its median.
Less concerning ifThe next sector update reports revenue growth at or above its median.
Why it matters: The board approved share repurchases through 2027. Actual purchases show how much money goes back to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly reports show FCNCA buying shares under the new plan. Total purchases move toward $1.2 billion.
Worry ifQuarterly reports show no purchases under the new plan. Or, the board pauses or ends it before using the $1.2 billion limit.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $257 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,977 loss on $10,000 · 19.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The BMO deal added about $4.9 billion in deposits. Keeping them would support the bank's new branch base.
Watch forReported General Bank deposits stay near or above the $4.9 billion added in the BMO deal. This accounts for other deposit changes.
Also watch forReported General Bank deposits fall by more than $4.9 billion from their level just after the deal. Other deposit growth does not clearly make up the gap.