First Citizens BancShares Inc/NC (FCNCA)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2208.49+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCNCA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FCNCA — debt issuance
Dated 2026-03-03
Other Events. On March 3, 2026, First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (the “Company”) issued and sold $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.869% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2032 (the “Notes”) in a public offering pursuant to a registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-281553) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “Commission”) on August 14, 2024, as supplemented by a prospectus supplement dated February 25, 2026 (the “Pro…
Why it matters: Stable cash flow shows strong operations. It helps with investments and returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is over $1 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operating activities falls below $500 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact First Citizens' performance. It signals broader economic trends.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 15%, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15%, showing continued strength.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is key for maintaining investor confidence. A strong report shows solid performance.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows net income growth above 10% year over year.
Worry ifNet income growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More noninterest income can show strong fees and services. This helps overall earnings.
Supportive ifNoninterest income increases by more than $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNoninterest income falls or rises by less than $100 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $259 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,977 loss on $10,000 · 19.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health. Changes can point to operational problems.
Watch forOperating cash flow is over $1.1 billion. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forOperating cash flow drops below $859 million. This may show operational problems.
Why it matters: Loan growth is a key driver of revenue. Continued growth signals strong demand and effective lending strategies.
Supportive ifLoans and leases grow by more than $2.34 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoans and leases grow by less than $2.34 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on money use show how management handles resources. This impacts future growth.
Watch forManagement shares new plans or investments after the $500M debt issuance.
Also watch forNo new plans or investments are shared after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports operational strength. A return to over $800M would confirm stability.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is over $800M in Q2 2026. This shows recovery.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is under $200M. This shows ongoing cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth is crucial for funding and reflects customer confidence in the bank.
Supportive ifTotal deposits for Q3 2026 exceed $173.43 billion.
Worry ifTotal deposits for Q3 2026 fall below $170 billion.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows strong financial health. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 surpasses $672 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 falls below $600 million.
Why it matters: This acquisition could add $5.3 billion in deposits and $700 million in loans. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes successfully by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or fails to close by the expected date.
Why it matters: A drop in NIM might mean less profit as interest rates change.
Worry ifNIM drops below 3.09% in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifNIM remains at or above 3.09% in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs could show worse credit quality and hurt earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $111 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs stay below or equal to $111 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in operating cash flow could signal issues in cash generation and financial health.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $1.04 billion in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow remains at or above $1.04 billion in the next quarterly report.