Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-11-05
$57.90-7.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 34.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FCX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-08
Other Events. On September 1, 2026, PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s 48.76%-owned subsidiary, amended and restated its $1.75 billion, senior unsecured revolving credit facility to, among other things, extend the maturity date under the facility from November 2028 to September 2031. As of September 1, 2026, PTFI had $250 million in borrowings outstanding under its revolving credit facility. PTFI’s revolving credit facility is available for its general corporate purposes. S…
Why it matters: FCX set a Q4 copper sales target of 875 million pounds. Lower sales could point to delays in the Grasberg ramp-up or shipments.
Worry ifFCX reports Q4 2026 copper sales below 875 million pounds.
Less concerning ifFCX reports Q4 2026 copper sales of at least 875 million pounds.
Why it matters: FCX kept its 2026 cost goal at $1.90 per pound. Higher costs could reduce the cash benefit from strong copper prices.
Worry ifFCX reports 2026 average copper cash costs above $1.90 per pound.
Less concerning ifFCX reports 2026 average copper cash costs at or below $1.90 per pound.
Why it matters: FCX raised its 2026 capital spending estimate to about $4.4 billion. A further rise could add pressure to cash available for other uses.
Worry ifFCX reports that it will spend more than $4.4 billion in 2026.
Less concerning ifFCX reports 2026 capital spending at or below $4.4 billion.
Why it matters: Management said Grasberg growth should be significant in 2027 and 2028. More output would show the mine is moving beyond its current ramp-up.
Supportive ifA 2027 report shows higher Grasberg copper output than in 2026, with the ramp-up on track.
Worry ifManagement reports another delay in ramp-up. Or, 2027 Grasberg output does not rise above 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,754 loss on $10,000 · 27.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FCX plans a sharp rise in Q4 gold sales, but export rules are not clear. A duty or delay could limit those sales.
Watch forPTFI reports Q4 gold sales near 300,000 ounces and confirms refined gold exports without a 10% duty.
Also watch forPTFI reports Q4 gold sales well below 300,000 ounces, or says export limits or the 10% duty apply.
Why it matters: Leach projects added 156 million pounds in the first nine months of 2026. Reaching the 2027 target would show that this growth plan is advancing.
Supportive ifFCX reports at least 300 million pounds of incremental leach copper in 2027.
Worry ifFCX reports less than 300 million pounds of incremental leach copper in 2027, or delays the target again.