Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.73+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and the US dollar.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
FCX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 14, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) and PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), a subsidiary of FCX, as borrowers, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, Bank of America, N.A., as syndication agent, and each of the lenders and issuing banks party thereto entered into a new revolving credit agreement (the New Revolving Credit Facility). The New Revolving Credit Facility replaced FCX’s prior $3.0 billion senior unsecured revolving credit f…
Why it matters: Staying on target with capex shows effective management of resources and growth plans.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending should be at or below $4.3 billion for the year.
Worry ifTotal capital spending goes over $4.5 billion for the year.
Why it matters: Managing capital spending is crucial for financial health. High spending could signal trouble.
Worry ifCapital spending was over $1.5 billion for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending stays at or below $1.5 billion for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher production shows good management. It means recovery after the mud rush.
Supportive ifCopper production for 2026 is more than 3.1 billion pounds.
Worry ifProduction remains below 3.1 billion pounds for the year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising net income shows strong finances and good operations.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $881 million for Q2.
Worry ifNet income reported below $881 million for Q2.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$209 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,431 loss on $10,000 · 24.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying under this cost target shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifAverage unit net cash costs remain below $1.95 per pound for copper.
Worry ifAverage unit net cash costs exceed $2.00 per pound for copper.
Why it matters: Approval is key for keeping operating rights. It helps ensure long-term work in Grasberg.
Supportive ifThe Indonesian government announced the new IUPK approval. This is now official.
Worry ifDelay or denial of the amended IUPK approval.
Why it matters: Successful ramp-up is crucial for increasing copper production and meeting sales targets. Any delays could hurt revenue.
Supportive ifCompletion of the ramp-up with production levels reaching at least 640 million pounds of copper in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFurther delays in ramp-up or production levels below 640 million pounds of copper in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Managing capital spending is crucial for Freeport's financial health. Clear guidance is needed.
Watch forManagement thinks capital spending will be less than $2 billion in 2026.
Also watch forManagement thinks capital spending will be more than $2.5 billion in 2026.
Why it matters: Saving on cash costs is important for making money. Updates will show how well management is doing.
Supportive ifCash costs decrease by more than 3% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash costs increase or remain unchanged compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong recovery and high demand for copper.
Supportive ifQ3 copper sales reach or exceed 750 million pounds.
Worry ifQ3 copper sales fall below 700 million pounds.
Why it matters: Staying under this cost target shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifAverage unit net cash costs remain below $1.90 per pound for Q3.
Worry ifAverage unit net cash costs exceed $2.00 per pound for Q3.
Why it matters: The MOU's approval will secure long-term operating rights and support growth plans.
Supportive ifThe Indonesian government issues the amended IUPK as agreed in the MOU.
Worry ifThe Indonesian government delays or rejects the MOU terms.
Why it matters: Updates on this ramp-up will show how fast operations can reach full capacity.
Watch forManagement says the Grasberg ramp-up is on track and meeting targets.
Also watch forManagement reports more delays or problems with the Grasberg ramp-up.