Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-11-04
$57.90-7.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.03 → 4.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FCX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures near $4.3 billion in 2026 | Capital spending is disciplined, targeted near $4.3 billion. | Intact | Capital expenditures exceed $4.3 billion by more than 10% in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $1.159B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.3 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20261,159,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FCX is a cyclical copper producer with a sector tailwind, strong recent financial performance, and robust earnings quality. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the recovery in Grasberg output and delivery on growth projects remain important execution tests.
Valuation is above peers, and its recent rise points to some re-rating, or a change in how the market values the business. The expectations gap is negative, so the current setup appears to assume more than the evidence fully supports; the priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility.
Near term, two recent earnings beats support the strong performance picture, while management says the Grasberg ramp-up is meeting expectations. Still, third-quarter copper production was below the prior-year quarter, and the next guidance update is a meaningful risk; the miss-risk estimate is low, but the industry has a history of misses.
Over the multi-year view, the key test is whether FCX restores Grasberg operations safely and sustainably, with production recovery becoming clearer. Leaching has added copper, while the Bagdad expansion remains under study; sector bellwethers’ results and guidance could either sustain or weaken the current Materials tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent results and sector conditions, but the valuation premium and incomplete Grasberg recovery leave meaningful execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash costs are managed around $1.95 per pound. |
| Intact |
| Unit cash costs rise above $1.95 per pound in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “FCX is incorporating new applications, technologies and data analytics into its leaching processes across its United States (U.S.) and South America operations to strengthen long-term cost competitiveness and unlock significant value.” “In addition to its innovative leaching initiatives, FCX is pursuing opportunities to leverage new technologies and analytic tools in automation and operating practices with a goal of improving operating efficiencies and reducing costs and capital intensity of its current operations and future development projects.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Consolidated copper sales of approximately 3.1 billion pounds in 2026 | Freeport-McMoRan expects to produce about 3.1 billion pounds of copper in 2026. | Improving | Copper sales fall below 3.1 billion pounds in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow above $8.7 billion in 2026 | These support steady revenue near $6.2 billion and free cash flow above $8.7 billion. | Broken | Free cash flow falls below $8.7 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $822M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.7 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 2026822,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.90 → $4.30 · observed estimates
$34.68B → $36.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.90 | $34,678,666,480 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.05 | $34,908,676,620 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.08 | $34,961,285,610 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.97 | $34,959,080,490 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.97 | $34,959,080,490 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.97 | $35,246,685,063 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.97 | $35,246,685,063 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.09 | $35,536,266,490 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.97 | $35,246,685,063 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.09 | $35,536,266,490 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.09 | $35,536,266,490 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.97 | $35,246,685,063 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.97 | $35,246,685,063 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.97 | $35,246,685,063 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.09 | $35,536,266,490 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.09 | $35,536,266,490 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.09 | $35,536,266,490 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.09 | $35,536,266,490 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.97 | $35,405,784,185 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.00 | $35,405,784,002 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.00 | $35,415,145,502 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.00 | $35,415,145,502 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.00 | $35,415,145,502 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.00 | $35,415,145,502 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.00 | $35,415,145,502 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.00 | $35,415,145,502 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.00 | $35,415,145,502 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.00 | $35,415,145,502 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.01 | $35,382,254,591 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.01 | $35,360,896,649 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.01 | $35,360,896,649 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.01 | $35,360,896,649 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.01 | $35,360,896,649 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.01 | $35,360,896,649 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.01 | $35,360,896,649 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.01 | $35,360,896,649 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.00 | $35,335,955,473 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.00 | $35,335,955,473 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.00 | $35,335,955,473 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.00 | $35,335,955,473 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.00 | $35,335,955,473 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.00 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.00 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.00 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.00 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.00 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.00 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.00 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.02 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.02 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.02 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.02 | $35,335,961,302 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.02 | $35,335,959,246 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.03 | $35,371,847,775 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.03 | $35,371,847,775 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.03 | $35,371,847,775 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.08 | $35,494,335,889 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.22 | $35,956,954,358 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.25 | $36,071,125,041 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.25 | $36,071,125,041 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.25 | $36,071,125,041 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.25 | $36,071,125,041 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.25 | $36,071,125,041 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.26 | $36,155,831,106 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.26 | $36,155,831,106 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.26 | $36,155,831,106 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.26 | $36,155,831,106 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.28 | $36,282,589,982 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.28 | $36,282,567,207 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.28 | $36,282,567,207 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.28 | $36,282,567,207 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.28 | $36,282,567,206 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.31 | $36,333,150,932 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.31 | $36,333,161,991 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.31 | $36,333,161,991 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.31 | $36,333,161,991 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.31 | $36,333,161,991 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.26 | $36,334,808,754 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.25 | $36,417,802,001 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.27 | $36,395,978,472 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.27 | $36,395,978,472 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.27 | $36,395,978,472 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.27 | $36,395,978,472 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.30 | $36,351,792,184 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.30 | $36,351,792,184 | 13 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.