FedEx Freight (FDXF)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$129.45+1.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain operating margin near 9% to 9.5%: 6.1% vs 9.0% target.
FedEx Freight aims for 4% to 6% revenue growth in 2026. Profit margin should be near 9% to 9.5%. Operating income is expected between $605M and $645M. The company benefits from FedEx's strong brand and network.
Amazon's expansion threatens FedEx Freight's market share. Earnings fell in the last quarter. Competition could hurt profit margins and growth.
The price is about 14% below our fair value near $168. The market expects moderate growth but risks from competition may be underestimated.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $605M in FY26
Breaks if: Significant market share loss or margin pressure from competition
Operating margin falls below 9% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is in a moderate-risk industrial company focused on driving profitable growth. The current thesis state is insufficient due to limited recent financial performance history, which has led to a downward price reaction.
The market currently reflects a low fragility tier, indicating that there are no immediate signs of instability. However, the medium confidence in the valuation model suggests that expectations may be cautious, given the recent changes in risk labeling.
Management has set ambitious targets for revenue growth and improving operating margins, but actual results have shown limited progress so far. The trajectory of fundamentals will depend on the execution of these strategies and the overall sector performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on whether FDXF can achieve its growth targets and how it performs relative to sector bellwethers like UPS and FDX. Any guidance cuts or misses from these companies could negatively impact FDXF's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company fired its chief commercial officer following an internal probe. This leadership change may disrupt strategic execution and growth. There are no other supporting factors to offset this threat.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, FDXF's performance will depend on management's ability to execute its growth strategy and the broader industrial sector's health. Not investment advice.