Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
FedEx Freight (FDXF)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$124.41-3.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.40 → 5.40 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FDXF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted operating income between $605M and $645M | Operating income is expected between $605M and $645M. | Intact | Operating income falls below $605M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-dependent growth and margin-improvement story in a sector facing a headwind, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. The thesis is still uncertain: management priorities show mixed progress, and the available evidence is not enough to read a firm thesis state.
The evidence does not provide a valuation measure or a clear account of market expectations, so whether FDXF looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Fragility is rated low, with no fragility gates triggered, but that does not establish what expectations are already reflected.
Near term, revenue growth and higher adjusted operating income point to operating progress, even as average daily shipments declined and reported operating income fell. Management’s investment and debt repayment plans show specific execution, but progress is mixed; the latest event was an earnings beat, while the risk label has risen from low to moderate.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis is more exposed if FDXF cuts guidance or if sector bellwethers UPS, FDX, and EXPD miss results or guide lower. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from those companies could support the industrial-sector backdrop, while FDXF’s own ability to grow revenue and adjusted margins despite shipment pressure remains central to the multi-year view.
The 1-to-3-year thesis has encouraging revenue and adjusted-profitability evidence, but shipment weakness, a sector headwind, and moderate risk leave confidence low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in FedEx Freight's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable market share despite Amazon's expansion. |
| Improving |
| Significant market share loss or margin pressure from competition |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 9% to 9.5% | Profit margin should be near 9% to 9.5%. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 9% in FY26 | Operating margin: 11.67% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 9% to 9.5% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202611.669435 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 4% to 6% revenue growth | A primary condition in FedEx Freight's published investment case. The stated target is 4% to 6% growth in 2026. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 1.69% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 4% to 6% growth in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20261.689189 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.00 → $5.40 · observed estimates
$8.15B → $9.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.00 | $8,148,555,525 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.00 | $8,793,188,326 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.40 | $9,573,731,887 | 4 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.