FedEx Freight (FDXF)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$129.45+1.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FDXF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
FDXF — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-06-01
Changes in Control of Registrant. Immediately prior to the consummation of the Spin-Off, the Company was a wholly owned subsidiary of FedEx. Effective as of 12:01 a.m., Central Time, on June 1, 2026 (the “Effective Time”), FedEx completed the Spin-Off through the distribution by FedEx of 80.1% of the outstanding shares of FedEx Freight common stock on a pro rata basis to the holders of FedEx common stock. Each FedEx stockholder received one share of FedEx Freight common stock for every two sh…
Why it matters: This figure is a key measure of profitability. A miss signals ongoing challenges in cost management.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is less than $605 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating income is more than $645 million.
Why it matters: A better margin shows FedEx Freight can manage costs well after the spin-off.
Supportive ifOperating margin falls within the 9.0% to 9.5% range for the transition period.
Worry ifOperating margin is less than 9.0% for the transition period.
Why it matters: This EPS guidance shows management cares about making money. Meeting it means good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS was between $1.75 and $1.95 during the transition period.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS falls below $1.75 for the transition period.
Why it matters: A drop in shipments could mean demand is weakening. This would make it hard for management to grow.
Worry ifAverage daily shipments are less than 86,700 for the transition period.
Less concerning ifAverage daily shipments stay the same or rise above 86,700.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | Not available | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,110 loss on $10,000 · 21.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth target shows management wants to boost sales after the spin-off. Hitting this target means strong demand and a good strategy.
Supportive ifReported revenue growth between 4% and 6% compared to $5.1 billion for the prior seven months.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 4% compared to the prior seven months.
Why it matters: This growth target shows if FedEx Freight can maintain momentum after its spin-off. Meeting this target would signal strong demand and effective management.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for Q3 is reported between 4% and 6% compared to $5.1 billion from last year.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 4% compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: This EPS target shows that management wants to make more money after the spin-off. If they meet this target, it means they are controlling costs well and running operations smoothly.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS was between $1.75 and $1.95 before MTM adjustments.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS falls below $1.75 before MTM adjustments.