FedEx Freight (FDXF)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$124.41-3.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FDXF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 97.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 85.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FDXF — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-06-01
Changes in Control of Registrant. Immediately prior to the consummation of the Spin-Off, the Company was a wholly owned subsidiary of FedEx. Effective as of 12:01 a.m., Central Time, on June 1, 2026 (the “Effective Time”), FedEx completed the Spin-Off through the distribution by FedEx of 80.1% of the outstanding shares of FedEx Freight common stock on a pro rata basis to the holders of FedEx common stock. Each FedEx stockholder received one share of FedEx Freight common stock for every two sh…
Why it matters: That is the low end of the company’s forecast. It would show revenue growth despite recent shipment declines.
Supportive ifFor the three months ending December 31, 2026, revenue is at least $2.30 billion.
Worry ifRevenue for the three months ending December 31, 2026, is below $2.30 billion.
Why it matters: Revenue rose, but average daily shipments fell 1.4%. A rise in shipments would show that growth is not relying only on price and fuel.
Supportive ifAverage daily shipments rise year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifAverage daily shipments fall year over year again in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: A higher claims ratio could weaken the recent sign of better service and raise costs. Another record low would support continued progress.
Watch forThe claims ratio reaches another record low in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forThe claims ratio rises above its recent record low in the next reported quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $455 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,272 loss on $10,000 · 32.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.