First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.07+0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FHB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 43.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FHB — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-24
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 24, 2026, First Hawaiian, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiary, “First Hawaiian”) reported its earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of First Hawaiian’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. All information provided in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be…
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is running well. This helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes up by 10% or more from last quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations goes up by less than 10% from last quarter.
Why it matters: Stable or growing deposits show strong customer trust. This is key for funding and loans.
Supportive ifTotal deposits show growth or stabilize above $20.2 billion in Q3.
Worry ifDeposits drop below $20.2 billion. This may raise concerns among customers.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a weakening trend in the financial sector.
Worry ifFirst Hawaiian reports revenue growth below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help First Hawaiian grow on the mainland.
Supportive ifRegulators approve the merger with no big conditions.
Worry ifRegulators reject the merger or add conditions that delay it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,678 loss on $10,000 · 16.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A steady or better net interest margin shows good handling of interest income.
Supportive ifNet interest margin reported at or above 3.25% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 3.19%. This suggests profits are going down.
Why it matters: A rising efficiency ratio means costs are going up compared to income. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio exceeds 57.8% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio gets better or stays under 57.8%.
Why it matters: Closing the TriCo acquisition will expand First Hawaiian's presence on the mainland. This move aims to create long-term value for shareholders and enhance market reach.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by the end of 2026. All approvals from regulators and shareholders are in place.
Worry ifThe acquisition may be delayed or not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal challenges for First Hawaiian and its peers.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More loans show strong demand. This helps revenue and fits with management's growth goals.
Supportive ifTotal loans exceed $14.4 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal loans decline or stay below $14.4 billion.
Why it matters: A lower payout ratio shows good capital use. It helps support future growth plans.
Supportive ifDividend payout ratio remains below 50% in Q3.
Worry ifDividend payout ratio exceeds 50% in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows growth and focus on making money.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $73.4 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $67.8 million.
Why it matters: Noninterest income affects profits. It also shows how well the bank serves its customers.
Watch forNoninterest income for Q2 2026 is over $52.8 million. This is more than Q1 2026.
Also watch forNoninterest income for Q2 2026 falls below $52.8 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good use of money and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend stays at $0.26 per share.
Worry ifDividend declared drops below $0.26 per share.