First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.12-2.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FHB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 51.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FHB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2026, First Hawaiian, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiary, “First Hawaiian”) reported its earnings for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of First Hawaiian’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. All information provided in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deem…
Why it matters: FHB's margin rose for two straight quarters and reached 3.30% in Q3. Further gains would support core income, apart from one-time items.
Supportive ifFHB reports a net interest margin above 3.30% in a later quarter.
Worry ifFHB reports a net interest margin below 3.25% in a later quarter.
Why it matters: Deposits fell $623.2 million in Q2, then were flat in Q3. Continued growth would support funding strength as FHB prepares for the TriCo deal.
Supportive ifTotal deposits rise by more than $50 million in a quarter, after the $50.4 million increase reported in Q3.
Worry ifTotal deposits fall by more than $50 million in a quarter, after the Q2 decline and Q3 flat balance.
Why it matters: Shareholders approved the deal, but other closing conditions remain. A timely close clears the path to combine the banks.
Supportive ifFHB files a closing notice or other public filing. It confirms the deal closed by December 31, 2026, with required approvals in place.
Worry ifFHB reports a failed closing condition, a delay past 2026, or the end of the merger agreement.
Why it matters: Loans grew in Q1 and Q2, then fell $115.1 million in Q3. A return to growth would show the prior trend is intact.
Supportive ifTotal loans and leases rise by more than $100 million in a quarter, reversing the Q3 decline.
Worry ifTotal loans and leases fall again in a later quarter, extending the Q3 drop of $115.1 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $206 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,971 loss on $10,000 · 19.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A $12.5 million charge-off on one CRE loan drove much of the latest credit cost. Another large loss could point to wider loan stress.
Worry ifFHB reports another single CRE loan charge-off of at least $10 million. Or, quarterly net charge-offs top 0.60% of average loans.
Less concerning ifQuarterly net charge-offs drop below 0.60% of average loans. No single CRE charge-off is $10 million or more.