Fair Isaac (FICO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-07
$1300.59+1.09%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading FICO? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track FICO free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading FICO? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track FICO free→A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. Slower and deeper than the daily snapshot — it refreshes only when the evidence moves.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to increasing revenue guidance.
The market prices FICO as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, the valuation reflects a low level of execution quality, indicating that investors are cautious about potential fragility.
FICO's fundamentals are likely to show continued strong growth, as management has consistently raised revenue guidance. However, there is a near-term risk of missing expectations, given the recent history of misses in the industry.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, potential Fed rate cuts, and the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP and CRM. A cut in guidance could negatively impact sentiment.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FICO's performance will depend on its execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat and the increase in full year revenue guidance support a positive outlook for FICO. However, there are concerns about the widening AI readiness gap, which could hinder growth objectives.
as of 2026-07-07
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if FICO continues its strong revenue growth. Investors will look for signs of sustained performance.
Confirms:Earnings report shows revenue growth above $1.463 billion for Q3.
Disproves:Earnings report reveals revenue below $1.463 billion for Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would confirm strong growth momentum for FICO.
Confirms:Management raises its revenue forecast for the year to more than $2.45 billion.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers its revenue forecast to less than $2.45 billion.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong growth momentum and investor confidence.
Confirms:FICO raises its full year revenue guidance above $2.45 billion.
Disproves:FICO maintains or lowers its revenue guidance below $2.45 billion.
Why it matters: A permanent CFO can help stabilize management. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms one read:FICO has a new permanent CFO with strong industry experience.
Confirms the other:FICO still has an interim CFO for a long time. This raises concerns about leadership.
Why it matters: A successful buyback can boost share value and signal confidence in FICO's financial health.
Confirms:FICO has finished the $2.0 billion buyback program.
Disproves:FICO delays or cancels the buyback program, raising concerns about cash flow.
Why it matters: A permanent CFO can stabilize management. This may help boost investor confidence.
Confirms one read:A new CFO is appointed.
Confirms the other:There is a delay in appointing a permanent CFO.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance would signal stronger growth expectations for Fair Isaac. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management will raise the full year revenue guidance in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers the full year revenue guidance. This shows weaker growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Announcing a buyback program can signal management's confidence in the company's value. It may support the stock price.
Confirms:Management shares a plan for a stock buyback. They provide details on amount and timing.
Disproves:There is no news or a delay in the stock buyback plan. This raises concerns.
Why it matters: Stronger growth than FY25 would show Fair Isaac is improving its market position. This can attract more investors.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above the growth rate achieved in FY25.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below FY25 levels, suggesting stagnation.
Why it matters: The GDP report may change how people view FICO's business. It can also affect investors.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is above 2%. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is below 1%. This shows the economy is weak.
Why it matters: Stronger growth than FY25 is key for FICO's long-term plans and investor trust.
Confirms:FICO reports revenue growth higher than the previous fiscal year.
Disproves:FICO reports revenue growth lower than FY25, suggesting a slowdown.