Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$60.54 → $50.59 · observed estimates
Fair Isaac (FICO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$701.03-3.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
59.39 → 50.59 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FICO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute share buyback program up to $2.0 billion | Its strong revenue growth and buyback program support durable earnings. | Intact | No meaningful buybacks announced or executed within 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$60.54 → $50.59 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FICO is a strong-performing growth business with an intact long-term thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Recent revenue and income growth support the case, but the risk level is high and evidence on earnings quality and management is neutral.
The evidence rates FICO as cheap versus peers, though its valuation rose recently and the model has medium confidence. Expectations appear broadly justified, with a slightly negative expectations gap, and the priced-in fragility rating is low.
For the near term, recent results show strong growth: revenue, operating income, and net income were higher in the first nine months of 2026 than a year earlier, and management raised full-year revenue guidance. Guidance delivery is an important test, since a reversal would damage credibility; a workforce reduction was also reported in October, but its impact is not detailed.
The multi-year view hinges on whether FICO sustains growth and delivers against its raised guidance. A guidance cut would be a negative signal, while lower interest rates or stabilization among large technology peers could support the near-term sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, with operating results providing support but high risk and the need to sustain execution keeping the picture uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| FICO grows revenue about 24% a year, backed by new data products like UltraFICO. |
| Under Pressure |
| Significant loss of pricing power or data product adoption stalls |
Qualitative: 35% EPS growth vs. guidance withheld Q3 EPS up 35%, but FICO declined to share guidance amid price structure changes and cut 15% of workforce. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS at least $33.47 next quarter | Profit per share is rising, with guidance for $33.47 EPS next quarter. | Intact | EPS falls below $25.05 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $10.45 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=33.47 USD per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Jul 29, 202610.45 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year revenue reaches at least $2.45 billion | A primary condition in Fair Isaac's published investment case. The stated target is >=2450 USD millions. | Intact | Full year revenue falls below $1.99 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $674.188M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2450 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 2026674,188,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Company to Host Conference Call The company will host a webcast on July 29, 2026, at 5:00 p.m.” “Company to Host Conference Call The company will host a webcast on April 28, 2026, at 4:30 p.m.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.20B → $2.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $60.54 | $3,199,141,855 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $60.54 | $3,199,141,855 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $59.39 | $3,147,532,920 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $59.39 | $3,147,532,920 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $59.39 | $3,147,532,920 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $58.68 | $3,123,318,635 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $57.28 | $3,057,233,875 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $57.12 | $3,057,233,875 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $57.12 | $3,057,233,875 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $57.12 | $3,057,233,875 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $57.12 | $3,057,233,875 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $57.12 | $3,057,233,875 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $57.12 | $3,057,233,875 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $56.48 | $3,029,451,840 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $56.48 | $3,029,451,840 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $56.48 | $3,029,451,840 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $56.48 | $3,029,451,840 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $55.99 | $3,022,530,411 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $55.99 | $3,022,530,411 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $55.40 | $3,000,016,490 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $55.39 | $2,999,745,061 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $55.39 | $2,999,745,061 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $55.39 | $2,999,745,061 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $55.39 | $2,999,745,061 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $55.39 | $2,999,745,061 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $55.39 | $2,999,745,061 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $55.39 | $2,999,745,061 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $52.51 | $2,884,969,850 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $52.51 | $2,884,969,850 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $52.51 | $2,884,969,850 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $52.51 | $2,884,969,850 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $52.51 | $2,884,969,850 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $52.51 | $2,884,969,850 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $50.59 | $2,817,436,517 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $50.59 | $2,817,456,517 | 10 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 6 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.