Fair Isaac (FICO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$932.26-16.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
FICO grows revenue about 24% a year, backed by new data products like UltraFICO. Profit per share is rising, with guidance for $33.47 EPS next quarter. The company buys back stock, returning capital to shareholders. Its strong revenue growth and buyback program support durable earnings.
Growth could slow if AI adoption lags or competition erodes pricing power. The company’s profit margins may face pressure from rising costs. Capital allocation risks exist due to new financial obligations.
The market prices in about 24% revenue growth and values shares roughly 13% below our fair value near $1486. Our fair value aligns with Street median targets, reflecting justified expectations for growth and profitability.
Breaks if: No meaningful buybacks announced or executed within 12 months
FICO has announced a new share buyback program to acquire up to $2.0 billion of its outstanding common stock.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue growth and management execution. The current thesis state reflects strong recent financial performance, although there are risks that could impact future results.
The market currently prices FICO as justified, with a low fragility tier. There is an expectations gap indicating that while the company is seen as cheap compared to peers, it is not overly expensive given its execution quality.
FICO's fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong growth, as evidenced by recent revenue and income increases. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain or raise revenue guidance and the overall health of the tech sector. Additionally, external factors like potential Fed rate cuts and performance from sector leaders could significantly influence FICO's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. FICO missed revenue estimates, which raises guidance concerns. The stock dropped sharply, indicating a potential repricing of the thesis. Increased competition from VantageScore could hinder FICO's growth objectives. Recent earnings beat still supports growth, but threats have increased.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Significant loss of pricing power or data product adoption stalls
Breaks if: EPS falls below $25.05 in FY26
Breaks if: Full year revenue falls below $1.99 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FICO appears well-positioned but faces challenges that could affect its performance. Not investment advice.