Fair Isaac (FICO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$701.03-3.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FICO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 60.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FICO — workforce reduction
Dated 2026-10-06
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On October 1, 2026, management of Fair Isaac Corporation (the “Company”) committed to a plan of workforce reduction by reducing the number of layers in the organization, simplifying the operating structure, optimizing processes and tools, and integrating AI-driven product development. This plan involves the elimination of approximately 15% of positions across the Company. Affected employees were notified beginning the week of October 5, 2026.…
Why it matters: FICO raised its revenue forecast to $2.53 billion. The final result tests whether growth stays strong.
Watch forFY2026 revenue is above $2.53 billion.
Also watch forFY2026 revenue is below $2.53 billion.
Why it matters: FICO plans to cut about 15% of jobs and change how it builds products. Later reports can show whether costs fall without slowing software growth.
Watch forA company report shows lower costs tied to the plan, while Software ARR growth stays at or above 10%.
Also watch forA company report links weaker software growth, delayed products, or higher costs to the plan.
Why it matters: Scores revenue grew 41% in Q3, led by higher mortgage score prices. Growth below 20% would mark a sharp slowdown.
Worry ifQ4 Scores revenue grows less than 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 Scores revenue grows 20% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Platform ARR grew fast, while non-platform ARR fell. Another report will show if platform growth can offset that drop.
Watch forPlatform ARR growth stays above 10%, and total Software ARR growth stays at or above 10%.
Also watch forPlatform ARR growth falls below 10%, or total Software ARR growth falls below 10%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $635 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,789 loss on $10,000 · 67.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.