Fair Isaac (FICO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$932.26-16.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FICO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FICO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-06-08
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Strong growth in Software ARR would show that FICO's analytics and decision-making tools work well.
Supportive ifSoftware ARR growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifSoftware ARR growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A permanent CFO brings stability and trust in FICO's financial plans.
Supportive ifFICO announces the appointment of a permanent CFO within the next quarter.
Worry ifFICO has no permanent CFO for a long time.
Why it matters: This rate shows customer satisfaction. It also shows growth potential in software revenue.
Watch forThe Software Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate is over 110%.
Also watch forThe Software Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate falls below 100%.
Why it matters: The buyback program can affect stock price and investor sentiment. It shows confidence in the company's value.
Supportive ifFICO finishes the $2 billion share buyback on time.
Worry ifFICO does not complete the buyback as planned or delays it.
Why it matters: A permanent CFO can stabilize management. This may help boost investor confidence.
Watch forA new CFO is appointed.
Also watch forThere is a delay in appointing a permanent CFO.
Why it matters: Lower net income growth may show problems in operations or the market.
Worry ifNet income growth reported below 20% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet income growth remains at or above 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: This report will show if FICO continues its strong revenue growth. Investors will look for signs of sustained performance.
Supportive ifEarnings report shows revenue growth above $1.463 billion for Q3.
Worry ifEarnings report reveals revenue below $1.463 billion for Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance show how management feels about future results.
Watch forManagement raised full year revenue guidance to more than $2.53 billion.
Also watch forManagement lowered full year revenue guidance to less than $2.45 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance show FICO's growth path and market conditions.
Supportive ifFICO raises its full year revenue guidance above $2.45 billion.
Worry ifFICO lowers its revenue guidance below $2.45 billion.
Why it matters: Ongoing net income growth would show that the company is doing well. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifNet income growth exceeds 20% year over year from $237.2 million.
Worry ifNet income growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show how much management trusts the company.
Supportive ifThey announced completed buybacks of at least $1 billion from the new program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the execution of the buyback program.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that things are going well. It would also back up management's higher guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 25% year over year from $674 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 25% year over year.
Why it matters: Stronger growth than FY25 is key for FICO's long-term plans and investor trust.
Supportive ifFICO reports revenue growth higher than the previous fiscal year.
Worry ifFICO reports revenue growth lower than FY25, suggesting a slowdown.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $626 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,093 loss on $10,000 · 50.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.