Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC (FIGR)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.90-9.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.51 → 1.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FIGR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Loan Marketplace volume hits $4.1 billion in Q2 2026 | The company targets $4 billion in Consumer Loan Marketplace volume in Q2 2026. | Intact | Volume falls below $3.8 billion in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth financial platform with a multi-year thesis that depends on continued marketplace expansion and successful integration of Kiavi. The thesis is intact, but the risk profile is high and management execution is assessed as neutral.
Valuation evidence is mixed: one measure indicates FIGR is cheap versus peers, while another shows an 85% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding, but confidence in that valuation reading is low; the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low.
Near term, strong recent performance has included earnings beats, and Consumer Loan Marketplace volume rose from $2.9 billion in Q1 to $4.3 billion in Q2. Management completed the Kiavi acquisition as planned and guided to Q3 volume of $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion; however, earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, making a guidance cut a key risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on sustaining marketplace growth, delivering on guidance, and integrating Kiavi. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued strength at financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum; rate cuts are also flagged as a sector headwind.
For the 1 to 3 year view, the business evidence remains strong, but high risk and mixed, low-confidence valuation signals make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Free cash flow yield >= 0%. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow yield remains negative beyond next 4 quarters |
Free cash flow yield: -72.07% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 2026-72.07 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $818 million in FY26 | A primary condition in FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $818 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $515 million in FY26 | Revenue: $225.588M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $818 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 2026225,588,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful integration of merger with Kiavi, Inc. | A strategic merger with Kiavi aims to strengthen growth. | Intact | Merger agreement fails or integration causes material disruption | Merger completed 2026-09-01; no disruption reported FIGR completed Kiavi acquisition on Sept 1, 2026. Q3 2026 preliminary results announced Oct 6, 2026, indicating an earnings beat. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.29 → $1.51 · observed estimates
$1.03B → $1.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.41 | $1,022,169,020 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.41 | $1,022,169,020 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.41 | $1,022,169,020 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.41 | $1,022,169,020 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.41 | $1,022,169,020 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.41 | $1,022,169,020 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.44 | $1,045,858,590 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.44 | $1,045,858,590 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.44 | $1,045,858,590 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.44 | $1,045,858,590 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.29 | $1,025,522,911 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.47 | $1,115,853,662 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.47 | $1,119,375,557 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.47 | $1,119,375,614 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.47 | $1,119,375,614 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.47 | $1,119,375,614 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.47 | $1,119,375,614 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.48 | $1,128,071,757 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.52 | $1,154,932,966 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,609 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,609 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,609 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,609 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.56 | $1,182,314,681 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.54 | $1,169,775,346 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.54 | $1,169,775,346 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.51 | $1,173,825,346 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.51 | $1,173,819,471 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.51 | $1,173,819,471 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.51 | $1,173,819,471 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.51 | $1,172,451,320 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.51 | $1,172,451,320 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.52 | $1,178,225,007 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.52 | $1,179,051,854 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.52 | $1,189,646,092 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.51 | $1,185,868,370 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.51 | $1,185,868,370 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.51 | $1,185,868,370 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.51 | $1,185,868,370 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.51 | $1,165,077,443 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.51 | $1,165,077,443 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.51 | $1,165,077,443 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.51 | $1,165,081,243 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.