Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Finwise Bancorp (FINW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.670.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.01 → 0.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FINW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Meet or exceed EPS guidance of $0.20 for 2026-Q2 | A supporting condition in Finwise Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.20 for 2026-Q2. | Broken | EPS guidance falls below $0.20 for 2026-Q2 | Diluted EPS: $0.74 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.20 for 2026-Q2. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 28, 20260.74 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder. Management is delivering on loan growth and efficiency priorities, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort and the overall thesis state is watch.
The valuation reading is cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, meaning market expectations appear demanding relative to the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility rather than a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near-term, loan originations and credit-enhanced balances are growing, and the efficiency ratio improved from the prior quarter. However, earnings quality is fragile, recent results are neutral overall, and the latest earnings beat follows a July miss; smaller size and erratic surprises leave some risk of a miss or guidance cut.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on FINW sustaining loan growth and efficiency gains without a guidance cut. Sector support may continue if bellwethers keep reporting strong results, while rate cuts from the current level could weigh on financial companies.
For the next one to three years, FINW has evidence of operating progress but also meaningful execution and sector risks, so the multi-year view remains watchful. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Finwise Bancorp grew loan originations 22% to $6.1 billion in 2025. |
| Under Pressure |
| YoY loan originations growth falls below 15% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain positive cash flow from operations | Cash from operations improved to $19.7 million in 2026-Q1. | Broken | operating cash flow turns negative in any quarter | Cash from operations: $0 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: positive cash flow from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.78 → $0.97 · observed estimates
$0.28B → $0.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.78 | $279,191,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.78 | $279,358,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.78 | $279,358,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.78 | $279,191,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.78 | $279,191,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.78 | $279,358,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.78 | $279,191,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.72 | $254,677,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.48 | $254,510,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.30 | $241,910,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.30 | $241,910,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.30 | $241,910,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.30 | $241,910,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.30 | $241,910,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.30 | $241,914,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.05 | $213,497,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.05 | $213,497,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.05 | $213,497,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.05 | $213,497,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.05 | $213,497,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.30 | $241,914,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.30 | $241,914,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.30 | $241,914,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.30 | $241,914,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.30 | $241,914,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.30 | $241,914,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.30 | $241,914,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.05 | $213,501,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.01 | $212,835,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.97 | $222,010,133 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.97 | $222,010,133 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.97 | $222,010,133 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.97 | $222,010,133 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.97 | $222,010,133 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.97 | $238,726,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.97 | $238,726,467 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.