Finwise Bancorp (FINW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.99-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FINW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 52.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 60.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FINW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Good integration can help FinWise's market position. It can also increase revenue.
Supportive ifFinWise says it will successfully integrate the Tallied platform by Q4 2026.
Worry ifThere may be integration problems or delays by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if loan originations and net income stay positive.
Watch forNet income increases year over year from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026.
Also watch forNet income decreases year over year from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a weakening trend in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Loan originations are key to FinWise's growth. A rise would show strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 loan originations are over $1.6 billion. This shows growth in established programs.
Worry ifQ3 loan originations are below $1.6 billion. This shows weakness in demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $333 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,229 loss on $10,000 · 42.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress on the repurchase program may show management's trust in the company's worth.
Supportive ifFinWise announces share buybacks under the program.
Worry ifNo share buybacks happen or management stops the program.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can help stock price. They also show that management trusts the company.
Supportive ifFinWise announces buyback of shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows financial health and stability. It can support future investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations remains above $15 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $10 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A significant drop in loan originations would signal challenges in sustaining growth. This could impact future earnings.
Worry ifQ3 loan originations below $1.43 billion, which is a 5% decline from Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifLoan originations are over $1.5 billion. This shows growth is continuing.
Why it matters: Higher integration costs may use up resources. This could delay revenue from the acquisition.
Worry ifIntegration costs are above $4 million in the next year.
Less concerning ifIntegration costs are below $4 million. This shows good management.
Why it matters: Starting the share repurchase program shows that management is confident. This may increase value for shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases have been announced under the program.
Worry ifNo share repurchases have started. This shows a lack of confidence in stock value.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost control. This helps with growth and making money.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio is below 50% in Q3.
Worry ifThe efficiency ratio is above 53.1%. This may indicate some problems with operations.