FIX
Comfort Systems USANYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FIX has a composite score of 18.1, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.0 and elevated market risk. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth and labor conditions, with sector performance at 16.7 and valuation considered expensive at 18.4. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.85
- Slope (norm)-0.24
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $8.90 → $10.40 (+16.8% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase quarterly dividendcapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/23: “The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.80 per share, a $0.10 increase from the most recent dividend.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The quarterly dividend increased from $0.60 to $0.80 per share, reflecting a consistent focus on returning value to shareholders. This increase aligns with the company's capital allocation strategy, showing delivery on this priority.
- 2.Maintain optimism for 2026growthbehind14% progress
2/19: “We are optimistic about our prospects for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite optimism for 2026, the financials show a net income decline from $230.8M in 2025-Q2 to a loss of $96.3M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving the optimistic outlook.
- 3.Expect strong earnings and cashgrowthwatchprovisional
4/24: “We continue to expect strong earnings and cash in 2025.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q1. Despite expectations for strong earnings and cash, net income declined from $145.9M in 2024-Q4 to a loss of $96.3M in 2025-Q4. This indicates a disconnect between expectations and financial performance, showing limited progress.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-06-30 | $0.48 | $1.08 | beat |
| 2022-03-31 | $0.60 | $0.91 | beat |
| 2022-09-30 | $2.08 | $1.67 | miss |
| 2024-12-31 | — | $4.08 | unclassifiable |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 52%; 252d 51%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −14%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.91 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 15/100, drawdown 73/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 67% of the last 3 guided quarters · 52.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase quarterly dividend
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04The company aims to increase its quarterly dividend, reflecting a commitment to return value to shareholders.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The quarterly dividend increased from $0.60 to $0.80 per share, reflecting a consistent focus on returning value to shareholders. This increase aligns with the company's capital allocation strategy, showing delivery on this priority.
44%CEO/CFO:“The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.80 per share, a $0.10 increase from the most recent dividend.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.80 per share, a $0.10 increase.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, a $0.10 increase.”
- #2
Maintain optimism for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04The company maintains optimism for its prospects in 2026, expecting continued success.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite optimism for 2026, the financials show a net income decline from $230.8M in 2025-Q2 to a loss of $96.3M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving the optimistic outlook.
14%CEO/CFO:“We are optimistic about our prospects for 2026.”10-KSource dated 2026-02-19Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q110-K
“We are optimistic about our prospects for 2026.”
- 2025-Q210-K
“Overall, we remain optimistic that we will achieve continued success into 2026.”
- #3
Expect strong earnings and cash
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04The company expects strong earnings and cash flow in 2025, indicating confidence in financial performance.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q1. Despite expectations for strong earnings and cash, net income declined from $145.9M in 2024-Q4 to a loss of $96.3M in 2025-Q4. This indicates a disconnect between expectations and financial performance, showing limited progress.
Net income declined from $145.9M in 2024-Q4 to a loss of $96.3M in 2025-Q4No scoreCEO/CFO:“We continue to expect strong earnings and cash in 2025.”10-KSource dated 2025-04-24Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q110-K
“We continue to expect strong earnings and cash in 2025.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FIX Comfort Systems USA | +18 | expensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-23)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 51 - 2026-04-2315d agoItem 8.01
Other Events Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.2 is a copy of a press release of the Company dated April 23, 2026 reporting the Company’s declaration of a quarterly dividend on the Company’s common stock to stockholders of record as of the close of business on the record date, May 15, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 37 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 12 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.2 is a copy of a press release of the Company dated February 19, 2026 reporting the Company’s declaration of a quarterly dividend on the Company’s common stock to stockholders of record as of the close of business on the record date, March 6, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 9 - 2025-12-194mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) and (c) On December 19, 2025, Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Trent T. McKenna will transition from his current role as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer to the role of Company President and Chief Operating Officer, effective January 1, 2026. In connection with his appointment as Preside…
executive changeneutralscore 3
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.