Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$964.94-11.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
60.18 → 66.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FIX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Backlog stays above $12.4B | A supporting condition in Comfort Systems USA's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.4B backlog. | Intact | backlog falls below $12.4B | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FIX looks like a growth-oriented industrial business, with recent revenue, operating income, and backlog growth supporting its long-term thesis. Management priorities are on track, but the thesis is still in watch status because performance has been below its industry cohort and overall risk is high.
FIX is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral and priced-in fragility is low. This suggests the market is not demanding much beyond current expectations, though the valuation evidence does not remove the business risks.
Over the multi-year view, management’s focus on profitable organic growth and backlog has been backed by higher revenue, operating income, and backlog across the supplied periods. Near term, the latest event was an earnings beat, but a guidance cut on the next call remains a meaningful risk; recent peer misses and a deep past miss also warrant attention.
The thesis hinges on whether FIX can sustain profitable growth and maintain its strong backlog. Near-term signals include the next guidance update and results from sector bellwethers: continued strength could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FIX has evidence of execution and demand growth, but its high risk and performance below peers leave the long-term thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company also raised dividends steadily to $0.80 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.80 |
Dividend per share: $0.90 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.80 dividend per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 20260.9 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve EPS near $28.88 in FY26 | Earnings per share rose from $4.09 to $10.51 in the same period. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $28.88 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $13.91 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $28.88 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202613.91 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near $11.9B in FY26 | A primary condition in Comfort Systems USA's published investment case. The stated target is >= $11.9B total revenue. | Under Pressure | total revenue falls below $11.9B in FY26 | Revenue: $3.766B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.9B total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20263,766,302,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$54.17 → $66.81 · observed estimates
$14.23B → $17.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $54.17 | $14,228,187,295 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $55.04 | $14,348,910,720 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $55.04 | $14,348,910,720 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $56.99 | $14,690,740,340 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $56.99 | $14,673,691,406 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $56.99 | $14,673,691,406 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $60.66 | $15,412,709,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $60.04 | $15,412,709,880 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $60.04 | $15,412,709,880 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $60.04 | $15,412,709,880 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $60.04 | $15,412,709,880 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $60.04 | $15,412,709,880 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $60.04 | $15,563,298,894 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $60.18 | $15,580,235,358 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $60.18 | $15,580,235,358 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $60.18 | $15,580,235,358 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $60.18 | $15,580,235,358 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $60.18 | $15,580,235,358 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $60.18 | $15,580,235,358 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $60.18 | $15,580,235,358 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $60.18 | $15,580,235,358 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,894 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $60.18 | $15,446,388,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $60.22 | $15,458,078,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $60.22 | $15,458,078,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $60.22 | $15,458,078,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $60.22 | $15,458,078,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $60.22 | $15,458,078,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $60.22 | $15,458,078,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $60.22 | $15,458,078,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $60.22 | $15,458,088,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $60.22 | $15,458,088,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $60.22 | $15,458,088,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $60.22 | $15,458,088,854 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $61.34 | $15,890,631,554 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $65.86 | $17,051,207,662 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $66.81 | $17,373,877,662 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $66.81 | $17,373,877,662 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $66.81 | $17,373,877,662 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $66.81 | $17,373,877,662 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $66.81 | $17,373,877,662 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $66.81 | $17,373,877,662 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $66.81 | $17,373,877,662 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.