Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-07-07
$1682.52-6.16%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1682.52. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,683 FIX trades at 49× p/e, below its 54× p/e peer median, but our blended $1,405 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $1,819–$2,200. Note: our $1,405 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($1,819–$2,200). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $2002.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1017.09 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1046.40 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $249.55 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$1819.00 – $2200.00 (median $2002.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 790% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 8.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $17.41/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $1565.92 |
| 54.2 |
| 28.88 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $1127.05 | 28.7 | 39.23 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1879.32 | 54.2 | 34.66 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $352.06 | 1.5 | 237.04 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $946.91 | 27.3 | 34.66 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $1280.76 | 37.0 | 34.66 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $2128.33 | 54.2 | 39.25 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $3762.00 | 54.2 | 69.38 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1714.11 | 28.7 | 59.67 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $2858.21 | 54.2 | 52.71 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $737.45 | 1.5 | 496.51 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $1440.14 | 27.3 | 52.71 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $1947.87 | 37.0 | 52.71 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $6748.16 | 54.2 | 124.46 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $2266.91 | 28.7 | 78.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $3779.98 | 54.2 | 69.71 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $975.27 | 1.5 | 656.64 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1904.58 | 27.3 | 69.71 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $2576.06 | 37.0 | 69.71 | Analyst | high |