Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-02 · fmp
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
$37.16-1.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.96 → 1.96 EPS · FY ending May 2, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FIZZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain special and regular dividends | It pays special dividends often. | Intact | Special dividends stop or dividend cuts occur | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-02 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FIZZ is a consumer staples business with a sector backdrop that is currently supportive. Its long-term thesis is intact, though recent financial performance is neutral and management’s repeated focus on innovation and balancing volume with margins has yet to show clear volume progress.
The valuation is above peers, while the expectations gap is modest and the valuation view is neutral. The valuation score has fallen recently, and the evidence labels the priced-in signal unjustified, with low fragility. The snapshot does not explain the market’s specific assumptions, so that part of the picture is unclear.
Near term, recent earnings misses and volume softness create execution risk, even as gross margin showed some recovery. Management continues to emphasize new products, pricing discipline, and margins, but the evidence does not quantify the sales impact of innovation. Dividend payments have been consistent, while the next call and broader economic conditions remain important near-term checks.
The unfavorable case strengthens if management cuts guidance or weakening job growth adds to recession concerns for cyclical consumer names. The favorable case depends partly on continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers, which could support sector momentum. Over the multi-year view, the key question is whether innovation and pricing choices can support demand without sacrificing margins.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FIZZ’s thesis rests on execution: the sector backdrop helps, but repeated earnings misses and soft volume leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share beat last year by 317%. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $2.00 in fiscal 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.50 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.00. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 10, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 37% in fiscal 2026 | National Beverage keeps profit margins steady near 37%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 37% in fiscal 2026 | Gross margin: 35.02% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= 37%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 10, 202635.017631 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We believe recently instituted pricing actions, together with our disciplined operating focus, will improve performance.” “We will continue to monitor tariff-related cost increases and, if necessary, make price adjustments designed to balance the effects on consumers with the amount absorbed by the Company, ” stated a company spokesperson.” Gross profit was $99.604 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue stays near $297 million in fiscal 2026 Q4 | A primary condition in National Beverage Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $297 million. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $297 million in 2026-Q4 | Revenue: $330.662M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $297 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 10, 2026330,662,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We believe recently instituted pricing actions, together with our disciplined operating focus, will improve performance.” “We will continue to monitor tariff-related cost increases and, if necessary, make price adjustments designed to balance the effects on consumers with the amount absorbed by the Company, ” stated a company spokesperson.” Gross profit was $99.604 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.05 → $1.96 · observed estimates
$1.24B → $1.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.05 | $1,237,551,956 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.05 | $1,240,804,723 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.96 | $1,247,639,942 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.