National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.24-0.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIZZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
FIZZ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-02
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.
Why it matters: New products like PineApple CocoNut and Strawberry Peach are crucial for driving sales. Success in these launches could boost revenue.
Supportive ifSales from new products exceed $10 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifSales from new products are below $5 million. This shows weak demand from consumers.
Why it matters: Successful product launches can boost sales and improve brand image.
Supportive ifSales data shows high demand for new products. PineApple CocoNut is popular after the expo.
Worry ifSales for new products are weak or below expectations post-expo.
Why it matters: If the company raises prices due to tariffs, it could impact sales volume. Monitoring this will show how well they manage costs without losing customers.
Watch forThe company raises prices to cover tariff costs.
Also watch forThe company keeps prices the same even with higher tariff costs.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve its profitability after a recent earnings miss. It is a key indicator of financial health.
Watch forEarnings per share go up from the last quarter. This shows a recovery in making money.
Also watch forEarnings per share go down again. This shows ongoing financial problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,711 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower costs for materials could help profits. This is important for staying financially healthy in a tough market.
Supportive ifCommodity costs decrease by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifCommodity costs increase by more than 5%, squeezing margins further.
Why it matters: New products like PineApple CocoNut and Strawberry Peach are important for sales. Their success will show how well the company is innovating.
Supportive ifNew product sales growth of at least 10% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifSales growth for new products falls below 5% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Sales growth signals how well the company is managing pricing and volume. It shows if the strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ4 net sales increase year over year by more than 3%.
Worry ifQ4 net sales decrease year over year or grow less than 1%.
Why it matters: Strong volume growth would show that the company is recovering from earlier softness. It can boost confidence in their pricing strategy and innovation efforts.
Supportive ifQ4 shipment volume increases by more than 7% compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ4 shipment volume growth is less than 7% or declines year over year.
Why it matters: New products like PineApple CocoNut and Strawberry Peach are key for sales growth. Their success will show how well the company innovates.
Supportive ifSales growth from new products exceeds 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSales from new products decline or do not grow, indicating weak consumer demand.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue growth would signal a positive change in the company's performance. This could help improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More consumer spending can help sales for National Beverage. Watching trends will show future results.
Supportive ifConsumer spending went up in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on September 16, 2026.
Worry ifConsumer spending went down in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on September 16, 2026.
Why it matters: Tariffs can affect costs and pricing strategies. If costs rise, it may lead to price adjustments that impact sales.
Worry ifManagement says there are no big cost increases from tariffs that hurt profits.
Less concerning ifManagement says there are big cost increases from tariffs that cause price hikes.
Why it matters: Lower commodity costs could help margins and profits. This is important for the company's growth.
Supportive ifManagement says margins will get better next quarter. This is due to lower commodity costs.
Worry ifRising commodity costs can hurt margins and may lead to higher prices.
Why it matters: How management handles tariff costs will affect pricing and profit margins. This is key for staying profitable.
Watch forThe company handles tariff costs without raising prices. This helps keep profit margins steady.
Also watch forThe company raises prices a lot because of tariffs. This hurts sales volume.
Why it matters: Tariff costs could impact pricing and margins. Management's response will show how they handle these challenges.
Watch forManagement plans to handle tariff costs. They will not pass these costs to consumers.
Also watch forManagement says they will raise prices because of tariff effects.
Why it matters: A further decline in revenue would show ongoing challenges in volume growth and pricing.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $264.6 million. This continues the downward trend.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is above $264.6 million. This shows better sales performance.
Why it matters: The market's reaction to the special dividend could signal confidence in future cash flows.
Supportive ifShare price goes up after the special dividend of $3.25 per share.
Worry ifShare price goes down or stays the same after the dividend announcement.
Why it matters: If tariffs raise costs a lot, it could hurt margins and profits.
Worry ifManagement says costs are up due to tariffs affecting gross margins.
Less concerning ifNo big cost increases reported. This helps keep margins stable.
Why it matters: Strong sales from new products could indicate successful innovation and brand strength.
Supportive ifSales of PineApple CocoNut and Strawberry Peach show strong growth in volume.
Worry ifSales from new products fail to gain traction, showing weak consumer demand.