National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
$37.16-1.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FIZZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 40.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers
FIZZ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-11
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.
Why it matters: In the latest quarter, sales were nearly flat year over year as volume fell. A return to growth would show demand is improving.
Supportive ifIn the December 10 report, sales rise from a year ago, and management says volume is higher.
Worry ifIn the December 10 report, sales fall from a year ago, or management says volume keeps falling.
Why it matters: The company is absorbing some tariff costs, while aluminum and other costs already cut margins. More cost pressure could weaken profits.
Worry ifThe December report says tariffs or input costs rose, and gross margin falls below 35%.
Less concerning ifThe December report says tariff costs eased or were offset, and gross margin rises above 35%.
Why it matters: Management links new flavors to demand and wider reach. More stores and faster sales would show the products are gaining ground.
Supportive ifThe December report says both flavors gained distribution or sales speed since the last report.
Worry ifThe December report says either flavor lost distribution or sales speed. Or it shows no further gains.
Why it matters: Higher aluminum, packaging, and freight costs cut the latest quarter's margin. A higher margin would show pricing or lower costs are helping.
Supportive ifGross margin rises above 35% in the December report.
Worry ifGross margin stays at or below 35% in the December report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $289 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,261 loss on $10,000 · 22.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.