Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Flowers Foods (FLO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.100.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.73 → 0.70 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FLO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $495 million in 2026 | Profit margins stay close to $495 million adjusted EBITDA. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $465 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FLO is a consumer staples business with a long-term thesis tied to stronger sales and better operating efficiency. The thesis is currently intact, though company quality has declined and near-term risk is elevated.
FLO is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions are cautious. Confidence in the valuation model is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain.
Near term, results face pressure: sales rose 1.1% in the first quarter but fell 4.0% in the second, while materials, labor, and selling costs took a larger share of sales. Management is working on portfolio positioning and cost structure, but the recent earnings miss and run of misses leave execution uncertain.
A guidance increase next quarter after the recent reduction would support a recovery in execution. Continued weak jobs data could deepen recession concerns, while strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the broader staples backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on a sales recovery and cost control, with elevated risk until management shows clearer progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending is disciplined around $125 million. |
| Intact |
| Capital expenditures fall below $115 million or exceed $125 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $23.853M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $115 million and <= $125 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 20, 202623,853,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable leadership and execution | A supporting condition in Flowers Foods's published investment case. The stated target is No further major executive departures or disruptions. | Under Pressure | Additional key executive departures or failure to stabilize leadership | 1 executive departure (CEO) vs 0 allowed CEO resigned June 2026; routine director elections Nov 2026; no further major executive departures reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $5.2 billion in 2026 | Flowers Foods keeps revenue near $5.2 billion in 2026. | Broken | Revenue falls below $5.163 billion or above $5.267 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.193B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.163 billion and <= $5.267 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 20, 20261,192,935,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.83 → $0.70 · observed estimates
$5.20B → $5.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.83 | $5,198,409,760 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.83 | $5,198,409,760 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.82 | $5,184,345,240 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.82 | $5,184,287,700 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.82 | $5,184,287,692 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.81 | $5,167,983,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.80 | $5,146,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.80 | $5,146,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.75 | $5,099,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.73 | $5,086,150,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.72 | $5,079,950,967 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.71 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.70 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.70 | $5,078,617,633 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.