Flowers Foods (FLO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.27-2.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-20
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 20, 2026, Flowers Foods, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial condition and results of operations as of and for the 12 weeks ended July 18, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Report as Exhibit 99.1 .
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company strategy. This affects how the company operates and grows.
Watch forThe new CEO shares a clear growth plan that matches what investors expect.
Also watch forThe new CEO's plan causes confusion or worry for investors.
Why it matters: This shows problems with managing costs and profits. It can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was below $465 million. This shows weaker performance.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was at or above $465 million. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Net sales growth will show if the company can handle lower sales and rising costs.
Watch forNet sales growth for Q2 2026 is at least 1% year over year.
Also watch forNet sales decline year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good money management, which is key for stability.
Watch forCapital spending is between $115 million and $125 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is over $125 million or under $115 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $384 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,581 loss on $10,000 · 55.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher costs would hurt margins and affect profits.
Worry ifLabor and freight costs increase as a percentage of net sales beyond 51.6%.
Less concerning ifLabor and freight costs decrease as a percentage of net sales.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans may change financial strategy and efficiency. This could affect profits and growth.
Watch forThe new CFO has a plan for strategic initiatives.
Also watch forNo clear strategy or direction provided by the new CFO after taking office.
Why it matters: Changes in how much consumers spend can affect sales and profits. This matters for bakeries.
Watch forConsumer spending trends improve. This leads to higher sales for Flowers Foods.
Also watch forConsumer spending trends worsen. This leads to lower sales for Flowers Foods.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows less profit and efficiency.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $453 million for the fiscal year.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA stays above $481 million for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: The new CFO might change financial plans. This could affect performance and investor trust.
Watch forThe new CFO implements strategies that lead to improved financial metrics in the next quarter.
Also watch forThe new CFO's strategies result in further declines in financial metrics in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects sales directly. Watching this shows how the economy impacts Flowers Foods.
Worry ifSales drop more than 3% year over year because of inflation.
Less concerning ifSales stay the same or increase each year, even with economic challenges.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows confidence. It helps investors see future performance.
Supportive ifManagement says they expect revenue in 2026 to be between $5.163 billion and $5.267 billion.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: Stabilizing or declining sales would indicate ongoing struggles in a tough market. This could affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth shows less than 0.2% change compared to the prior year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales growth exceeds 0.2% compared to the prior year.
Why it matters: The new CFO's approach may shift financial strategies. This could affect performance and investor confidence.
Watch forNew CFO D. Anthony Scaglione shares plans that match company goals.
Also watch forNo clear plans come from the new CFO's early actions.
Why it matters: Shifts in consumer spending can impact sales. Understanding these trends helps gauge future performance.
Watch forConsumer spending data shows more spending in bakeries.
Also watch forConsumer spending data shows less spending in bakeries.
Why it matters: A change in the dividend shows how management feels about cash flow. It shows how the company values shareholder returns.
Watch forAn announcement of an increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.1250 per share.
Also watch forA decrease or suspension of the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA results will show if the company can keep its guidance during tough times.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is at least $465 million.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 falls below $465 million.
Why it matters: Good feedback would help the brand grow and reduce current sales drops.
Supportive ifCustomer feedback on Nature's Own shows big improvements and good trends.
Worry ifCustomer feedback on Nature's Own stays negative or does not change.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows the company's confidence in growth. It can impact investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue guidance for 2026 is the same in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers the revenue guidance for 2026 in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show ongoing market problems. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline worse than -3.5% compared to the prior year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales decline less than -2.2% compared to the prior year.