Flowers Foods (FLO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.100.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
FLO — officer change
Dated 2026-11-04
Director — Shaun P. Mara, Ken A. Plunk: The filing discloses the routine election of two new directors to expand the board, with no indication of a senior executive departure.
Why it matters: Q2 volume fell 5.8%, despite higher price and mix. A smaller drop would point to better demand or stronger sales execution.
Supportive ifQ3 total volume declines by less than 5.8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 total volume declines by 5.8% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 sales fell 4%, as lower volume outweighed better price and mix. A smaller drop would show the decline is easing.
Supportive ifIn the November 12, 2026 results, net sales decline by less than 4% year over year.
Worry ifNet sales decline by 4% or more year over year, matching or worsening Q2's drop.
Why it matters: In Q2, production costs and selling, distribution, and office costs both took a larger share of sales. Further increases would add pressure while sales and volume fall.
Worry ifQ3 production costs exceed 51.6% of sales, or SD&A costs exceed 39.7% of sales.
Less concerning ifQ3 production costs are 51.6% of sales or less, and SD&A costs are 39.7% or less.
Why it matters: Flowers cut its 2026 adjusted EPS range after weak first-half results. Results below the new low end would show more pressure than the updated outlook allows.
Worry ifThe company reports adjusted diluted EPS under $0.75 per share in 2026.
Less concerning ifThe company reports 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $0.75 or more per share.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,233 loss on $10,000 · 52.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management says customer feedback has been strong, but the relaunch has not yet meaningfully added to results. Sales gains would show the new offer is reaching shoppers.
Supportive ifFlowers reports that Nature's Own sales or volume grew year over year after the relaunch.
Worry ifFlowers reports little or no sales gain for Nature's Own, or reports lower sales than a year ago.