Flowco Holdings, Inc. (FLOC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.10-1.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLOC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 17.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLOC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 11, 2026, Flowco Holdings Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information being furnished pursuant to this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchan…
Why it matters: The dividend shows how much cash the company makes. A steady or higher dividend shows confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifThe dividend is maintained or increased from the current $0.09 per share.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or suspended, indicating cash flow issues.
Why it matters: An increase would show strong cash generation. It also shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board approves a quarterly cash dividend higher than $0.09 per share.
Worry ifThe Board maintains or lowers the quarterly cash dividend at $0.09 or less.
Why it matters: Merging companies can help growth and efficiency. Problems or delays can hurt performance.
Supportive ifManagement says the merger is going well. It is helping operations.
Worry ifManagement talks about problems with the merger. These issues affect growth.
Why it matters: A shift from headwind to tailwind in the sector could boost Flowco's performance.
Supportive ifSector regime status improves from headwind to neutral or tailwind.
Worry ifSector regime status remains a headwind or worsens.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $452 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,247 loss on $10,000 · 32.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it could signal a shift from a mature phase to growth.
Supportive ifRevenue growth over three years speeds up. It is now above 2% each year.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth remains at or below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful integration of Valiant can enhance Flowco's product offerings and market position. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is going well. They also report better products from Valiant.
Worry ifThere are integration problems. This causes delays or issues with operations.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. This includes its finances and operations.
Watch forEarnings are better than expected, showing strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings are worse than expected, raising worries about growth.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow from operations supports Flowco's growth and dividend strategy. Exceeding $80 million would show robust financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $80 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $80 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Q2 results will show if Flowco maintains its revenue and profit growth. Investors look for strong performance to support the stock price.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue exceeds $209.5 million, showing continued growth from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $200 million. This shows a drop in performance.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows Flowco's promise to give cash to shareholders. A steady dividend can draw in investors.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid on time. This shows the company can generate cash.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or canceled. This raises worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of Flowco's market position and demand. A rise above 2% would suggest stronger performance in a mature sector.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for funding dividends and growth. A drop signals trouble.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $40 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains above $50 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower growth could indicate weakening demand in a key segment for Flowco.
Worry ifProduction Solutions revenue grew less than 15% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifProduction Solutions revenue growth exceeds 20% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger drop could show serious problems in this area. It may affect overall results.
Worry ifNatural Gas Technologies revenue decline worse than -6% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNatural Gas Technologies makes the same or more money in Q3 2026.