Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fluor (FLR)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.98-5.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.35 → 3.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FLR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow improves to positive territory | Fluor is improving cash flow and profitability with operating cash rising from -$286M to $110M. | Intact | operating cash flow falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $-317M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $110M operating cash flow. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026-317,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-sensitive industrial contractor, not a steady compounder today. The long-term thesis is supported by rising revenue and backlog, while the current state remains watch because recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and earnings quality is loss-making.
FLR is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation model has medium confidence. The negative expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions are below the model’s, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low; this does not remove the risk that results remain weak.
Near term, revenue rose from $3.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026 to $4.3 billion in the second, and awards increased from $2.7 billion to $6.1 billion. Backlog also grew to $26.9 billion, with 85% reimbursable, while share repurchases are progressing unevenly against the stated 2026 target. The outlook is tempered by lowered guidance as of August 7, recent earnings misses, and elevated risk, despite an earnings beat noted on that date.
A key favorable signal would be guidance reversing upward next quarter after the recent reduction. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on FLR converting its growing, more reimbursable backlog into stronger financial results. Results and guidance from sector peers PWR, FIX, and EME could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FLR’s growing backlog and stated execution priorities support the long-term thesis, but loss-making earnings quality, lowered guidance, and an industry headwind leave important proof still needed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS meets or exceeds raised guidance | The company has raised its EPS guidance for 2025 to $2.15 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.1 per share in 2025-FY | Diluted EPS: $0.81 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.15 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.81 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income improves to positive levels | Net income turned positive at $160M in Q1 2026. | Intact | net income falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $114M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $160M net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026114,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near consensus | A primary condition in Fluor's published investment case. The stated target is >= 8% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | revenue growth falls below 0% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 8.82% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 8% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20268.823529 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.27 → $3.37 · observed estimates
$17.05B → $18.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.27 | $17,050,445,820 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.37 | $18,297,067,760 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.25 | $17,270,915,656 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.39 | $18,394,780,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.35 | $18,223,180,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.36 | $18,253,518,472 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.36 | $18,253,518,472 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.36 | $18,253,518,472 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.36 | $18,253,518,472 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.36 | $18,253,518,472 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.36 | $18,253,518,472 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.37 | $18,276,032,757 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.37 | $18,276,031,331 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.