Fluor (FLR)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$56.16-2.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLR — officer change
Dated 2026-08-04
Director — Admiral James F. Caldwell Jr.: The Board elected Admiral James F. Caldwell Jr., U.S. Navy (retired) to fill a new position on the Board.
Why it matters: New awards are crucial for Fluor's growth. A rebound signals stronger demand and project opportunities.
Supportive ifNew awards in Q2 are over $2.7 billion. This shows a recovery from Q1's $2.1 billion.
Worry ifNew awards in Q2 remain below $2.1 billion, showing continued weakness in demand.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Fluor improved cash flow and profitability. This is key for future growth.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better cash flow. Profitability metrics are also better than last quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows cash flow and profitability metrics worse than last quarter.
Why it matters: Growing backlog shows Fluor can win long-term projects and keep steady revenue.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $27 billion. This shows strong demand for Fluor's services.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $25 billion. This suggests it may be hard to get new contracts.
Why it matters: Stable or rising revenue would help keep revenue growth on track.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue shows growth or stabilization compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue drops more year over year, showing ongoing revenue issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $463 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,188 loss on $10,000 · 21.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Backlog growth means strong future revenue and good project execution.
Supportive ifBacklog reported above $27 billion at the end of Q3.
Worry ifBacklog reported below $26 billion at the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Consistent positive cash flow is key for financial health. It helps keep operations running and allows for investments.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow remains positive and exceeds $110 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is negative again. It fell below $0 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Doing better here shows good cost control and project management.
Supportive ifUrban Solutions segment profit exceeds $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifUrban Solutions segment profit stays below $30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A change could show how management feels about project work and cost control. It will affect investor trust in profit.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now above $560 million. This shows project work is improving.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now below $525 million. This shows ongoing problems with projects.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows that profit efforts are working. This can help investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 net income is more than $160M. This confirms profit improvements.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $160M. This suggests profit challenges.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reach $1.4 billion by year-end.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $1 billion. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: New awards above this level show strong demand and good pipeline conversion.
Supportive ifNew awards reported for Q3 exceed $6.5 billion.
Worry ifNew awards reported for Q3 fall below $5 billion.
Why it matters: A big project charge may show ongoing problems and hurt profits.
Worry ifA project charge reported in Q2 exceeds $50 million.
Less concerning ifNo significant project charge reported in Q2.
Why it matters: Backlog data shows future revenue potential. A strong backlog means growth chances.
Supportive ifThe earnings release has backlog growth or new awards data. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifEarnings release shows backlog decline or lack of new awards, signaling weak demand.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue growth is crucial for Fluor's long-term success. It shows market demand.
Watch forRevenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in Q2.
Also watch forRevenue growth is below 2% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect how projects are done. Stability is key for Fluor's projects.
Worry ifProject work is stable. No delays are reported after the leadership change.
Less concerning ifThere are big delays or problems in project work after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is a top priority for Fluor. It impacts their ability to invest and grow.
Supportive ifManagement says cash flow improved by at least 10% from the last quarter.
Worry ifManagement says cash flow went down or did not improve from the last quarter.