Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$51.94+2.16%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.97 → 5.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FMBH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital allocation with new credit agreements | Management is on track with capital allocation and leadership transition. | Intact | Material credit issues or capital mismanagement arise | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FMBH is a regional bank with an acquisition-led growth plan and recent strong financial performance. Its long-term thesis is intact, though management execution is rated volatile and the latest earnings miss makes the near-term picture less clear.
Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and the evidence describes expectations as justified, with no specific fragility signals. The expectations gap is small, so the available evidence points to neither unusually low expectations nor a large premium that depends on strong results.
Over the multi-year view, completing the Two Rivers merger and realizing its benefits remain central, while the announced Evergreen acquisition has not yet shown up in the supplied financial results. Capital actions have progressed, including share repurchases, a higher dividend, and debt repayment. Near term, the latest earnings miss, consecutive misses, and sharp drops in company momentum and composite insight are meaningful execution risks.
The thesis strengthens if acquisition integration delivers benefits and financial performance remains strong. A guidance cut on the next call or Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current level would be negative factors. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the broader financial-sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact but is more dependent on execution after the latest miss; valuation appears aligned with peers rather than a clear source of support. The main swing factors are guidance, interest rates, and whether acquisitions deliver measurable benefits. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| First Mid Bancshares grew net income from $22.17M to $26.33M in one year. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $22 million in 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $27.789M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $26.33 million net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202627,789,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS at least $3.83 in full year 2026 | The company expects EPS of at least $3.83 in 2026. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $3.5 for 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.04 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.83 EPS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 7, 20261.04 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful implementation of new CEO leadership | Management is on track with capital allocation and leadership transition. | Intact | Leadership disruption harms company performance | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.88 → $5.11 · observed estimates
$0.34B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.88 | $336,206,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.92 | $354,139,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.92 | $354,139,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.93 | $451,933,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.93 | $451,933,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.93 | $451,933,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.94 | $334,377,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.94 | $334,020,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.94 | $334,020,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.94 | $334,020,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.94 | $334,020,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.94 | $334,020,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.94 | $334,020,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.94 | $334,020,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.94 | $452,566,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.96 | $453,050,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.96 | $453,050,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.96 | $453,050,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.96 | $453,050,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.96 | $453,050,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.96 | $453,050,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.96 | $453,050,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.96 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.97 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.97 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.97 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.97 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.97 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.97 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.98 | $453,650,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.04 | $463,350,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.07 | $476,560,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.07 | $476,560,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.14 | $481,460,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.11 | $481,316,667 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.11 | $481,316,667 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.