First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$50.86-2.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FMBH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FMBH — divestiture
Dated 2026-10-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 28, 2026, First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (“First Mid”) and Raven Sub LLC, a newly formed Missouri limited liability company and wholly-owned subsidiary of First Mid (“Merger Sub”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Evergreen Bancshares, Inc., a Missouri corporation (“Evergreen”), pursuant to which, among other things, First Mid agreed to acquire 100% of the issued and outstanding shares of Evergreen pu…
Why it matters: The companies plan to combine bank systems after the deal closes. A timely change would support the planned merger savings.
Supportive ifFirst Mid reports the bank merger and systems conversion are complete in Q2 2027.
Worry ifFirst Mid reports the conversion is delayed beyond Q2 2027 or needs added costs.
Why it matters: First Mid tied the deal to lower costs and about $0.9 million in annual branch savings. Reported savings can test that plan.
Supportive ifFirst Mid reports savings near 33% of Evergreen's noninterest costs. Branch savings are about $0.9 million per year.
Worry ifFirst Mid reports savings well below 33%, or says branch savings are under $0.9 million a year.
Why it matters: Loans fell by $85.8 million in Q3, as customer sales led to payoffs. Further declines could weigh on interest income.
Worry ifQuarter-end loans fall again from the Q3 level of $6.85 billion, with payoffs still outpacing new lending.
Less concerning ifQuarter-end loans rise above $6.85 billion, and management reports growth across loan groups.
Why it matters: First Mid's planned deal adds about $932 million in assets. Approval and closing are needed before it can pursue the stated cost savings.
Supportive ifFirst Mid reports all required approvals and closes the Evergreen deal by March 31, 2027.
Worry ifA required approval is denied, or First Mid reports the deal will not close by March 31, 2027.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $180 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,205 loss on $10,000 · 12.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: First Mid took a $14.8 million loss to free cash for higher-rate investments. The company says the loss should earn back in under two years.
Watch forFirst Mid reports that the sale's $14.8 million loss is earned back within two years.
Also watch forFirst Mid reports the earn-back period is longer than two years, or the cash is not reinvested at higher rates.