First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.33+0.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FMBH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FMBH — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance
Dated 2026-07-15
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth trajectory affects First Mid's performance. A slowdown could impact results.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend show management's trust. It reflects future earnings plans.
Supportive ifThe dividend goes up again. This shows strong earnings and good capital management.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or stays the same. This raises concerns about future earnings.
Why it matters: The amount of non-performing loans shows asset quality. A drop means better credit health.
Supportive ifNon-performing loans decrease from $41.3 million in Q2.
Worry ifNon-performing loans rise above $41.3 million. This shows worse asset quality.
Why it matters: Changes in net interest margin affect how much money is made. A stable margin helps earnings.
Supportive ifNet interest margin remains stable or increases from 3.79% in Q2.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.79%. This shows pressure on profits.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,382 loss on $10,000 · 13.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but any slowdown could signal trouble. Revenue growth impacts overall performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Good integration helps loans and deposits grow. It affects overall performance.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is going well. Loans and deposits keep growing.
Worry ifIntegration issues arise, leading to a decline in loan and deposit growth.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong financial health. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces an increase in the quarterly dividend beyond $0.26 per share.
Worry ifThe company maintains or cuts the dividend from $0.26 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in the allowance show how First Mid manages credit risk in agriculture.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses drops below $87 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses rises above $87 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Successful integration will show First Mid's ability to grow and manage new assets. It is key for future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says the merger with Two Rivers Bank & Trust went well. No major issues were reported.
Worry ifThere are problems with the merger. This causes delays and higher costs.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income shows good loan management. It also shows smart pricing.
Supportive ifNet interest income grows more than 5% from Q2 to Q3.
Worry ifNet interest income declines or grows less than 5% from Q2 to Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in loan types can show shifts in the market or management plans.
Watch forThere is strong growth in loans for commercial real estate and agriculture.
Also watch forLoans for commercial real estate and agriculture are dropping a lot.