Fidelity National Financial (FNF)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.78-3.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FNF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FNF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026 , Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (the "Company", "FNF") issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the First Quarter of 2026. A copy of the FNF earnings release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The following information, including the Exhibits referenced in this Item 2.02, is being furnished pursuant to this
Why it matters: Stable dividends show care for shareholders. This can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share stays at $0.52 or increases in Q2.
Worry ifDividend per share decreases from $0.52 in Q2.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted net earnings shows they are making more money. If growth is above 10%, it shows strong operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted net earnings grow more than 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted net earnings grow less than 5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop may show lower profits and change how investors feel.
Worry ifNet earnings per share falls below $0.80 in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet earnings per share remains above $0.80 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher gross sales would indicate strong demand for F&G's insurance products and growth potential.
Supportive ifF&G Segment gross sales exceed $3.5 billion in Q2.
Worry ifF&G Segment gross sales fall below $3 billion in Q2.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $266 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,435 loss on $10,000 · 24.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High capital return signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. Exceeding $200 million would reinforce this positive trend.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, over $200 million was returned to shareholders.
Worry ifCapital returned to shareholders is less than $150 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted net earnings show the company is making more money. This helps investors trust the company.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted net earnings exceed $250 million.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted net earnings fall below $225 million.
Why it matters: How the company returns money to shareholders can show its financial health.
Watch forManagement says they will give more money back to shareholders in Q2.
Also watch forManagement cuts or stops giving money back to shareholders in Q2.
Why it matters: Better cash flow would help FNF keep dividends and invest in growth.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities increases by more than 10% in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations drops or stays the same in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments show how much cash the company has. They also show how much the company cares about its shareholders.
Watch forThe company says it will raise its dividend payments.
Also watch forThe company announces a cut in dividend payments.
Why it matters: Updates on capital returns will show FNF cares about shareholder value. Strong returns can help investor sentiment.
Watch forFNF returns over $200 million to shareholders. This is through dividends and buybacks.
Also watch forCapital returns are under $150 million. This may mean a change in how capital is used.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals sector weakness. This could impact FNF's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median in upcoming reports.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows that the company is making more money. It also means the company is working better.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share exceeds $0.90.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share falls below $0.75.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial to confirm ongoing strength in the Title Segment. A drop signals potential weakness in the business model.
Worry ifQ3 Title Segment revenue growth below 16% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Title Segment revenue growth meets or exceeds 16% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to assess the success of F&G's strategy. A slowdown may indicate challenges in the transition to a fee-based model.
Worry ifF&G assets under management growth falls below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifF&G assets under management growth meets or exceeds 8% year over year.
Why it matters: This benchmark is vital to track the company's profitability trend. A decline may raise concerns about future earnings.
Worry ifNet earnings in Q3 fall below $288 million.
Less concerning ifNet earnings in Q3 meet or exceed $288 million.