Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Forestar Group, Inc. (FOR)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$24.46-2.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.77 → 2.60 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FOR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain free cash flow yield near 17% | Free cash flow yield is strong at 17%. | Intact | free cash flow yield falls below 15% | Free cash flow yield: 22.54% As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 202622.54 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FOR is a rate-sensitive real estate business with a value-oriented setup, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is stable, but earnings quality is fragile and recent performance is below its industry group.
The evidence describes FOR as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline. The priced-in assessment calls that discount justified, mainly because execution quality is weak, while noting that fragility is not at the highest level.
Near term, the earnings record is a concern: FOR missed estimates on October 29 after a prior miss in July, though company momentum improved after fresh earnings. Fiscal 2026 revenue was within guidance, but revenue and lots sold were lower than the prior year, and deliveries fell short of management’s stated range.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether management can improve delivery against its plans without cutting guidance. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weaker results or guidance from sector peers could remove that support.
Over a 1-3 year view, FOR has a cheap-versus-peers valuation and a possible rate tailwind, but its weaker execution and repeated misses keep the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Forestar aims to deliver 14,000 to 14,500 lots in fiscal 2026. |
| Intact |
| lot deliveries fall below 14,000 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue between $1.6B and $1.7B in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Forestar Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1600 million USD. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.6 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $407M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1600 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 22, 2026407,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 14 | A supporting condition in Forestar Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 14. | Intact | PE rises above 14 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 8.80x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 20268.7986 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.77 → $2.60 · observed estimates
$1.68B → $1.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.77 | $1,683,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.65 | $1,574,919,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.65 | $1,574,919,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.65 | $1,574,919,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.60 | $1,576,946,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.60 | $1,576,946,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.60 | $1,576,946,000 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.