Forestar Group, Inc. (FOR)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.89+0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FOR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 27.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
FOR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-21
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Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may show a recovery for the sector. This matters for Forestar's performance.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching above 5%.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 5% or keeps slowing down.
Why it matters: Better liquidity helps growth and stability. It shows good capital use.
Supportive ifTotal liquidity increases beyond $1.1 billion by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifTotal liquidity drops below $1.1 billion by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health and success in operations.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $0.70, showing strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share below $0.63 shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Continued decreases could indicate reliance on D.R. Horton and market weakness.
Worry ifLots sold to customers other than D.R. Horton fall below 289 lots.
Less concerning ifLots sold to customers other than D.R. Horton increase above 530 lots.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $325 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,095 loss on $10,000 · 20.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If it falls below this level, demand may weaken. This can hurt future revenue.
Worry ifLot deliveries for Q4 fall below 14,000 lots.
Less concerning ifLot deliveries for Q4 meet or exceed 14,500 lots.
Why it matters: Revenue shows how well the company is growing. Meeting guidance is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue reaches or exceeds the guidance of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion.
Worry ifQ4 revenue falls below $1.6 billion.
Why it matters: If revenue is below this level, sales may face problems. This could change future guidance.
Worry ifQ4 revenue reported below $1.6 billion.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue reported at or above $1.7 billion.
Why it matters: Growth in contracted revenue means strong future sales. It shows market strength.
Supportive ifContracted future revenue exceeds $2.3 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifContracted future revenue falls below $2.2 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If they confirm 14,000 to 14,500 lots, it shows management trusts market demand.
Supportive ifActual lots delivered in fiscal 2026 reach between 14,000 and 14,500 lots.
Worry ifActual lots delivered fall below 14,000 lots.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance at $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion shows the business is steady.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue remains within the $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion range.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue falls below $1.6 billion.