Forestar Group, Inc. (FOR)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$24.46-2.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FOR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FOR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Forestar announced a planned leadership change. It named a successor and a transition adviser. Watch whether the handoff happens as announced.
Watch forThe named CEO takes over, and Tomnitz serves as a transition adviser.
Also watch forThe named CEO's start is delayed, the successor changes, or the transition adviser role is not in place.
Why it matters: The company set a $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion revenue range. Revenue below its low end would signal weaker results than planned.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 revenue is below $1.4 billion.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 revenue reaches at least $1.4 billion.
Why it matters: These contracts stood at 21,500 lots and about $2.2 billion in future revenue. A sharp drop would weaken a key source of planned sales.
Worry ifA later company update reports fewer than 20,000 lots under contract for sale.
Less concerning ifA later company update reports at least 21,500 lots under contract for sale. Future revenue is near or above $2.2 billion.
Why it matters: The next results will test the new fiscal 2027 plan. They will also show whether the 32% year-over-year drop in fourth-quarter net income persists.
Watch forFiscal Q1 revenue grows year over year, and net income does not fall year over year.
Also watch forFiscal Q1 revenue falls year over year, or net income declines further year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $342 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,652 loss on $10,000 · 26.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Forestar plans to deliver 12,000 to 13,000 lots in fiscal 2027. Falling short would deepen the recent drop in annual lot sales.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 deliveries come in below 12,000 lots.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 deliveries reach at least 12,000 lots.