Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Merchants Corp. (FRME)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.06-1.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.49 → 4.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FRME yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain steady dividends and share buybacks | The bank pays steady dividends of $0.37 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.37 or buybacks halted | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FRME is a regional bank with a measured, execution-led long-term thesis rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is intact, but recent loan-growth figures are mixed and management execution is rated volatile.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with expectations close to the evidence-based baseline and low fragility. That suggests the market is not embedding a large expectations gap, though the available evidence does not show which specific business outcomes investors assume.
Near term, loan growth continues, but the reported year-over-year organic loan-growth amount declined between the cited disclosures; deposits increased in Q3 and capital remained stable. Repurchases are progressing against the announced program, while recent earnings misses and a downward trend in surprises leave some risk despite the October earnings beat and a low estimated miss probability.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on FRME sustaining loan and deposit growth without cutting guidance. A move by the Fed to lower rates is identified as a sector headwind, while continued earnings strength from financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, FRME’s thesis remains intact, with steady execution and capital strength balanced against mixed loan-growth progress and management volatility. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in First Merchants Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.88 EPS in FY26. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $3.50 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.09 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.88 EPS in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20261.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete and integrate First Savings Financial Group acquisition | A supporting condition in First Merchants Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition fully integrated by end of 2026. | Intact | Acquisition delays or failure to integrate by FY26 end | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We successfully completed the integration of First Savings, further strengthening our statewide Indiana franchise and enhancing our ability to serve clients across Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.” “"We successfully closed the acquisition of First Savings, adding $2.4 billion in assets and further strengthening our statewide Indiana presence while enhancing our ability to serve clients across Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.61 → $4.36 · observed estimates
$0.85B → $0.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.61 | $852,239,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.61 | $852,619,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.61 | $852,979,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.54 | $848,939,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.54 | $848,939,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.54 | $848,939,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.48 | $846,531,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.49 | $847,300,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.50 | $847,740,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.48 | $845,747,380 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.48 | $845,747,380 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.47 | $845,598,580 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.45 | $847,052,380 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.43 | $847,352,380 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.43 | $847,352,380 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.43 | $847,352,380 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.43 | $847,352,380 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.36 | $847,421,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.36 | $847,421,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.36 | $847,421,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.36 | $847,421,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.36 | $847,421,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.36 | $847,421,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.36 | $847,421,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.36 | $847,421,400 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.