First Merchants Corp. (FRME)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.06-0.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase EPS through operational efficiency: Q2 EPS $0.74 vs $1.02 consensus (-27.5%); FY26 EPS guidance $3.88.
First Merchants grows earnings with better efficiency. EPS rose 9.6% in Q1. The bank pays steady dividends of $0.37 per share. It also buys back shares to return cash to owners.
Revenue may shrink as analysts expect 7% decline. Management is volatile. Acquisition risks could hurt growth.
The price is about 37% below our fair value near $68. Analysts expect revenue to fall 7%. We see better earnings growth and stable dividends.
Breaks if: Dividend cut below $0.37 or buybacks halted
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.50 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate risk profile, given the mixed performance of management and recent earnings results. The current thesis is in a watch state, indicating that while there are opportunities, there are also significant risks to consider.
The valuation suggests that FRME is considered cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market is not overly optimistic. The current pricing reflects a justified valuation, with low fragility in the market environment.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results in the near term, as management works on integrating the recent acquisition while facing challenges from elevated credit loss provisions. The recent earnings miss adds to the uncertainty, although there is a focus on improving operational efficiency.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss is a key driver. This miss indicates ongoing challenges in meeting expectations. The company's fundamentals are now fragile.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on improving earnings per share by managing operational costs and driving adjusted earnings growth.
Breaks if: Acquisition delays or failure to integrate by FY26 end
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC, which could influence FRME's momentum. Additionally, management's ability to maintain consistent dividend payouts and successfully integrate acquisitions will be critical in shaping future performance.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FRME's outlook will depend on external sector conditions and internal execution. Not investment advice.