First Merchants Corp. (FRME)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.06-1.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRME
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FRME — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-15
OTHER EVENTS On October 15, 2026, First Merchants Corporation issued a press release announcing its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend on its 7.50% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series A, of $46.88 per share (equivalent to $0.4688 per depositary share) payable on November 16, 2026, to stockholders of record on October 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the…
Why it matters: The two loans had $41.8 million in balances and led to $29.7 million in reserves. More losses could weaken credit results.
Worry ifThese credits lead to new nonaccrual loans or added reserves. Or, nonperforming assets rise above 0.57% of assets.
Less concerning ifThese credits lead to no added reserves or new nonaccrual loans. Nonperforming assets stay at or below 0.57%.
Why it matters: The company bought back $50.3 million of shares year to date. Further purchases would show continued use of the announced plan.
Supportive ifThe company reports more Q4 share repurchases. Total purchases rise above $50.3 million.
Worry ifThe next report shows no Q4 share repurchases. Total purchases remain at $50.3 million.
Why it matters: Organic loan growth over the past year was $473.7 million in Q3, down from $768.0 million in Q1. A rise would show stronger lending growth.
Supportive ifThe next report shows over $473.7 million in organic loan growth over the past 12 months. This excludes acquired loans and mortgage loan sales.
Worry ifThe next report shows trailing 12-month organic loan growth below $473.7 million on the same basis.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $176 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,426 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.