First Merchants Corp. (FRME)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.06-0.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRME
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FRME — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-14
OTHER EVENTS On August 14, 2026, First Merchants Corporation issued a press release announcing the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.37 per common share. The cash dividend is payable on September 18, 2026 to common stockholders of record as of September 4, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the attached exhibit shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Why it matters: A drop in organic loan growth would suggest weakening demand and could impact future earnings.
Worry ifOrganic loan growth drops below 5.2%. This shows weakening demand for loans.
Less concerning ifOrganic loan growth remains above 5.2%, showing continued strong demand for loans.
Why it matters: If earnings per share recover, it shows the company is getting past its recent problems.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted earnings per share is over $0.70. This shows recovery from Q2's drop.
Worry ifQ3 diluted earnings per share is still below $0.70. This shows ongoing earnings pressure.
Why it matters: If earnings per share keep dropping, it shows problems after the acquisition.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $0.70, continuing the trend from Q2.
Less concerning ifIf Q3 diluted EPS goes above $0.70, it shows recovery is happening.
Why it matters: If net income falls more, it shows ongoing problems after the acquisition.
Worry ifIn Q3, net income for common stockholders is less than $43.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income exceeds $43.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $200 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,468 loss on $10,000 · 14.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A growing net interest margin means better profits. It also shows good interest rate management.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 3.38% in Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.30%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below the median signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact First Merchants' performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth for the financial sector drops below its median level.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median level.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets may mean worse credit quality. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNonperforming assets to total assets exceed 0.56% in Q3.
Less concerning ifIf nonperforming assets drop or stay below 0.56%, it is a good sign.
Why it matters: Loan growth shows strong demand. It also shows good management after the First Savings deal.
Supportive ifQ3 loan growth exceeds $221.7 million, or 5.8% annualized, on a linked quarter basis.
Worry ifLoan growth falls below $100 million on a linked quarter basis.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition would boost growth and expand First Merchants' market presence.
Supportive ifLook for news that the acquisition is done and approvals are in place.
Worry ifFurther delays or failure to complete the acquisition.
Why it matters: A drop in net income from last year shows possible problems with making money.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 is reported below $56.4 million from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds $56.4 million from Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback may show confidence in the company's value. This could help stock prices.
Supportive ifThe company completes the buyback of 3,125,000 shares.
Worry ifThe company announces a halt or reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.37 per share as announced for September 2026.
Worry ifDividend is reduced from $0.37 per share.
Why it matters: The Q3 earnings report will show if net income improves after a decline in Q2. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for common stockholders in Q3 is over $43.5 million.
Worry ifNet income for common stockholders in Q3 is under $43.5 million.
Why it matters: Loan growth shows strong demand. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifOrganic loan growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifOrganic loan growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Consistent dividends show strong money management. This can increase trust from investors.
Supportive ifDividend declared remains at $0.37 per share for Q3.
Worry ifDividend declared drops below $0.37 per share for Q3.