First Solar (FSLR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$204.45-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSLR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $204 FSLR trades at 13× p/e, below its 49× p/e peer median. Our $377 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $196–$324. Note: our $377 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($196–$324). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $272.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $591.68 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $607.35 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $186.98 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$196.00 – $324.00 (median $272.00) · 21 analysts · as of 2026-08-27
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.25/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $331.31 |
| 22.3 |
| 14.15 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $648.82 | 46.6 | 13.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $542.09 | 25.3 | 21.46 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $412.96 | 8.3 | 49.92 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $329.69 | 20.3 | 16.22 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $127.19 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $862.48 | 49.4 | 17.48 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $538.34 | 25.3 | 21.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $412.06 | 8.3 | 49.81 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $433.08 | 20.3 | 21.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $484.11 | 25.3 | 19.16 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $370.55 | 8.3 | 44.79 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $389.46 | 20.3 | 19.16 | Analyst | medium |