First Solar (FSLR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-07-08
$224.30-1.50%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $224.30. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $228 FSLR trades at 15× p/e, below its 73× p/e peer median. Our $445 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $213–$320. Note: our $445 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($213–$320). Not investment advice.
$213.00 – $320.00 (median $281.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.97/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $281.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $669.74 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $695.47 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $178.80 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $1072.47 | 74.0 | 14.50 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $381.35 | 20.3 | 17.94 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $779.46 | 50.3 | 15.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1144.96 | 74.0 | 15.48 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $533.46 | 10.6 | 50.35 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $359.21 | 23.2 | 15.48 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $122.06 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $285.52 | 18.4 | 15.48 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1221.90 | 74.0 | 16.52 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1741.34 | 74.0 | 23.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $529.31 | 10.6 | 49.96 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $546.31 | 23.2 | 23.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $434.24 | 18.4 | 23.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $468.82 | 10.6 | 44.25 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $722.49 | 23.2 | 31.14 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $574.28 | 18.4 | 31.14 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.