First Solar (FSLR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-05
$195.76+0.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSLR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FSLR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-24
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 24, 2026, First Solar, Inc. is issuing a press release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…
Why it matters: Net cash fell from $2.4 billion at year-end 2025 to $1.5 billion in Q3. Another drop would show more pressure from cash needs.
Worry ifReported year-end net cash is below $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifReported year-end net cash is at least $1.5 billion and within the $1.7–$2.3 billion year-end guidance range.
Why it matters: The board approved a $500 million repurchase plan, but it does not require any purchases. Cash use will show whether the plan moves forward.
Watch forA company filing or release says shares were repurchased under the plan. It states the number of shares or the dollar amount.
Also watch forThe next quarterly filing says no shares were repurchased under the plan.
Why it matters: The company cut its 2026 sales range to 16.0–17.0 GW. Results below that range would deepen the delivery shortfall.
Worry ifReported 2026 volume sold is below 16.0 GW, the low end of the updated range.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 volume sold reaches at least 16.0 GW.
Why it matters: First Solar cut its 2026 sales outlook after Q3 sales fell 23% year over year. Q4 sales test the new outlook.
Worry ifQ4 module sales are below 4.3 GW, the low end of the stated 4.3–5.3 GW range.
Less concerning ifQ4 module sales reach at least 4.3 GW, within or above the stated range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $515 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,716 loss on $10,000 · 47.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company cut its full-year sales range but kept a large profit outlook. Q4 results test that forecast.
Worry ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA is below $643 million, the low end of the stated $643–$843 million range.
Less concerning ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $643 million.
Why it matters: Backlog fell from 45.1 GW in Q2 to 44.0 GW in Q3. A further drop would add to concern about future sales.
Worry ifThe next reported contracted backlog is below 44.0 GW.
Less concerning ifThe next reported contracted backlog is at least 44.0 GW.