First Solar (FSLR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$204.45-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSLR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
FSLR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-24
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 24, 2026, First Solar, Inc. is issuing a press release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…
Why it matters: Keeping expenses low is key for making money when revenue is down.
Supportive ifOperating expenses are under $610 million. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifOperating expenses are over $635 million. This shows trouble in controlling costs.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows First Solar uses its money wisely.
Watch forCapital spending was at or under $1.0B.
Also watch forCapital spending was over $1.0B.
Why it matters: This balance is important for flexibility. It helps meet capital needs.
Supportive ifNet cash balance reported at $2.3B or higher at year-end 2026.
Worry ifNet cash balance reported below $1.7B at year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Managing spending is key for cash flow and growth. Changes may affect guidance.
Watch forSpending was less than $0.8 billion for 2026.
Also watch forSpending was more than $1.0 billion for 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$226 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $490 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,740 loss on $10,000 · 37.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: These credits greatly affect First Solar's profits and cash flow.
Watch forForecasted Section 45X tax credits are over $400 million. This boosts cash flow.
Also watch forForecasted Section 45X tax credits drop below $330 million, raising cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: Keeping operating expenses low is key to staying profitable as costs rise.
Worry ifManagement says costs are under $610 million.
Less concerning ifCosts are over $635 million.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance helps build trust with investors after the recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifManagement says Q2 revenue guidance stays the same during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q2 revenue guidance. This shows there are bigger problems.
Why it matters: This range is critical to meet the annual sales target of 18.2 GW. It shows demand strength.
Supportive ifQ3 module sales were over 4.5 GW.
Worry ifQ3 module sales were under 3.9 GW.
Why it matters: This range shows the company is financially healthy. It can manage costs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was more than $775 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $625 million.
Why it matters: A stable or growing backlog means strong future sales and product demand.
Supportive ifContracted sales backlog went up from 45.1 GW.
Worry ifContracted sales backlog went down from 45.1 GW.