First Solar (FSLR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$204.45-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Generate free cash flow near $2B: FCF guidance $1.7B-$2.3B vs $2.0B target.
First Solar aims for revenue near $5.1 billion in 2026. It targets free cash flow around $2 billion. The company controls costs with operating expenses near $620 million. Its valuation is cheap compared to peers with a P/E of 14.7 versus sector median 73.4.
Revenue growth is slowing with Q1 revenue down from Q4. Operating income dropped sharply in Q1. Cash flow turned negative in Q1, raising concerns on capital spending. The recent guidance cut and selloff reflect these risks.
The price is about 49% below our fair value near $453. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth. Our fair value is well above the Street median, reflecting optimism on growth and margins. The market discounts risks from recent guidance cuts and cash flow weakness.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $1.7B in FY26
Breaks if: Operating expenses exceed $635M in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $4.9B in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by consistent revenue and expense management, although recent financial performance has been mixed.
The market currently prices FSLR as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully anticipate future performance. The valuation reflects a low level of confidence in the company's execution quality.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given management's focus on maintaining revenue guidance and controlling expenses. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, as industry peers have faced challenges recently.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and control costs while navigating potential market shifts. Key factors include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and performance from sector peers like ENPH and SEDG.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The company has maintained its 2026 revenue guidance, reinforcing confidence in its growth trajectory. There are no current threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: P/E rises above 20 without earnings growth
Overall, FSLR's performance and management execution will be critical in the coming months. Not investment advice.