Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Firstsun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.72+1.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.70 → 4.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FSUN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS around $0.76 in 2026 | The bank stays profitable with EPS around $0.76 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.76 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.76 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026-0.49 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank turnaround and integration story, not yet a steady earnings compounder. The multi-year view is in watch mode because recent results improved, while management execution and performance relative to its industry remain mixed.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, and its measure rose from 44.8 to 61.2 recently. The priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified, with low fragility and only a small expectations gap, but does not remove the risk from uneven execution.
Near term, the latest quarter showed a recovery to net income of $38.4 million from a $22.9 million loss in the prior quarter, alongside lower credit-loss provisions and charge-offs. Integration work, balance-sheet changes, and credit controls have advanced, but remain ongoing; recent earnings surprises have been erratic and peer performance has been a concern.
The multi-year thesis depends on completing the First Foundation integration and sustaining operating synergies while maintaining asset quality. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from financial-sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
FSUN has shown meaningful quarter-over-quarter improvement, but its long-term thesis still hinges on consistent execution after the merger and a steadier performance record. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Firstsun Capital Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain loan downsizing progress. |
| Intact |
| Loan downsizing halts or reverses in next 4 quarters |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain positive net income | A primary condition in Firstsun Capital Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is Net income stays positive in FY26. | Improving | Net income turns negative in FY26 | Net income: $-22.85M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income stays positive in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026-22,850,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 41% in 2026 | A primary condition in Firstsun Capital Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=41% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below ~41% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.57 → $4.49 · observed estimates
$0.79B → $0.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.57 | $786,855,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.57 | $786,855,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.57 | $786,591,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.57 | $786,855,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.57 | $786,591,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.66 | $777,013,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.66 | $777,013,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.66 | $777,013,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.66 | $777,013,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.66 | $777,013,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.66 | $774,085,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.66 | $774,085,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.71 | $762,218,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.71 | $768,213,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.70 | $761,363,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.70 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.66 | $761,178,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.49 | $746,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.49 | $746,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.49 | $746,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.49 | $746,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.49 | $746,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.49 | $746,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.49 | $746,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.49 | $746,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.