Firstsun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.72+1.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FSUN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-09
Regulation FD Disclosure. FirstSun Capital Bancorp (“FirstSun,” “we,” “us,” and “our”), the holding company for Sunflower Bank, National Association (the “Bank”), expects its second quarter 2026 financial results to be adversely affected by charge-offs, primarily related to two commercial lending relationships, and related increases in our provision for credit losses. The first lending relationship is an asset-based loan to a materials distributor with an outstanding principal balance of appr…
Why it matters: Deposits fell $0.4 billion in Q3, while demand and NOW accounts rose. More stable deposits could ease funding pressure.
Watch forQuarter-end deposits rise above $13.0 billion, with demand and NOW accounts still growing.
Also watch forDeposits at quarter-end fall below $13.0 billion, or demand and NOW accounts decline.
Why it matters: The margin rose after FirstSun sold lower-yielding loans and cut higher-cost funding. A further rise would support core earnings.
Supportive ifThe next reported net interest margin is above Q3's 3.82%.
Worry ifThe next reported net interest margin falls below 3.58%, Q2's level.
Why it matters: Q3 charge-offs fell after two large C&I loan losses in Q2. A new rise could point to more credit trouble.
Worry ifQuarterly net charge-offs exceed 0.20% of average loans per year.
Less concerning ifQuarterly net charge-offs stay at or below Q3's 0.11%, with no new large loan losses.
Why it matters: FirstSun bought $49.7 million of shares in Q3 under the plan. More purchases would show that capital returns continue.
Supportive ifA filing or earnings release reports more Q4 repurchases under the $150 million plan.
Worry ifThe next earnings release reports no further repurchases, or the company pauses or ends the plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $275 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,709 loss on $10,000 · 17.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.