Firstsun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.92+0.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FSUN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-09
Regulation FD Disclosure. FirstSun Capital Bancorp (“FirstSun,” “we,” “us,” and “our”), the holding company for Sunflower Bank, National Association (the “Bank”), expects its second quarter 2026 financial results to be adversely affected by charge-offs, primarily related to two commercial lending relationships, and related increases in our provision for credit losses. The first lending relationship is an asset-based loan to a materials distributor with an outstanding principal balance of appr…
Why it matters: Falling adjusted net income shows that there are still problems with making money after the merger.
Worry ifAdjusted net income reported below $21 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted net income reported above $25 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This step is key to reducing risk after the First Foundation merger. It shows how well the company manages its new assets.
Supportive ifFinish the rest of the loan cuts for the First Foundation deal by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifFailure to complete the loan downsizing by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing the loan downsizing plan shows good management. It can make the balance sheet stronger.
Supportive ifCompletion of loan sales totaling at least $1 billion as part of the downsizing plan.
Worry ifLoan sales fall short of $800 million in total.
Why it matters: A falling margin could mean pressure on profits and earnings.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 3.5%. This shows possible profit issues.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays above 3.5%. This suggests profits are stable.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $316 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,715 loss on $10,000 · 27.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Charge-offs could hurt net income and indicate issues with loan quality. This impacts overall financial health.
Worry ifCharge-offs over $10 million are linked to the lawsuits.
Less concerning ifCharge-offs under $5 million are linked to the lawsuits.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could signal trouble for the financial sector and the company.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below its median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: High charge-offs show problems with credit quality. This can hurt profits and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported above $40 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $40 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A falling net interest margin can hurt profits. It shows problems with managing interest income and costs.
Worry ifNet interest margin reported below 3.50% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains above 3.50% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing loan downsizing is important after the merger. It shows management can carry out their plan.
Supportive ifManagement confirms that all planned loan downsizing is completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifLoan downsizing remains incomplete or is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Active share repurchases can show management believes in the company's value. This can help stock prices.
Supportive ifManagement begins buying back shares with the $150 million program.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are initiated by June 2027.