Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$95.98+3.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.19 → 5.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FTDR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchases continue at about $60 million per quarter | A supporting condition in Frontdoor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $60 million per quarter. | Intact | Share repurchases drop below $60 million per quarter | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FTDR is a growth-oriented business with robust earnings quality and stable management. Its long-term thesis is supported by raised 2026 guidance and progress on revenue and profitability, but the current state is watch because recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort.
FTDR trades at a premium to peers, which the evidence describes as durable and justified. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so current expectations appear somewhat ahead of the evidence captured here, while valuation confidence is medium and measured fragility is low.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth may continue if management delivers on its raised 2026 guidance; the latest quarter showed modest revenue growth and stronger adjusted EBITDA growth year over year. Operating cash flow was comparable with the prior-year first half, making cash generation a mixed part of the picture. Miss risk is assessed as low, but recent peer misses and FTDR’s history of a deep miss warrant attention.
The main company-specific swing factor is whether FTDR can maintain its raised guidance, since a reversal and guidance cut could damage management credibility. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength among SCI, ANDG, and HRB could support the industry backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support. The evidence on these forward scenarios is limited.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on sustained revenue growth, better profitability, and delivery against raised guidance, with recent performance relative to peers the key concern. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second-Quarter 2026 Summary • Revenue increased 5% to $645 million • Gross profit margin increased to 59% • Net Income and EPS (1) increased 13% to $125 million and 19% to $1.76, respectively • Adjusted EBITDA (2) increased 10% to $220 million • Completed $181 million of share repurchases year-to-date through July 2026, up over 21% from the same period in the prior year Raising Full-Year 2026 Outlook • Revenue of $2.19 billion to $2.21 billion • Adjusted EBITDA (2) of $585 million to $600 million “Frontdoor is delivering exceptional results across all key areas of the business,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Bill Cobb.” “• Capital expenditures of ~$30 million.”
Operating cash flow stays strong; capex $30-$35 million in 2026 | Cash flow stays strong with capital spending controlled. | Intact | Capex rises above $35 million or cash flow falls below Q1 levels | Capital expenditures: $6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex <= $35 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20266,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EBITDA about $572.5 million in 2026 | Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA near $573 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $553 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second-Quarter 2026 Summary • Revenue increased 5% to $645 million • Gross profit margin increased to 59% • Net Income and EPS (1) increased 13% to $125 million and 19% to $1.76, respectively • Adjusted EBITDA (2) increased 10% to $220 million • Completed $181 million of share repurchases year-to-date through July 2026, up over 21% from the same period in the prior year Raising Full-Year 2026 Outlook • Revenue of $2.19 billion to $2.21 billion • Adjusted EBITDA (2) of $585 million to $600 million “Frontdoor is delivering exceptional results across all key areas of the business,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Bill Cobb.” Gross profit was $378.000 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $2.155 billion in 2026 | Frontdoor grows revenue about 6% yearly, hitting $2.15 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.075 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $645M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.155 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026645,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second-Quarter 2026 Summary • Revenue increased 5% to $645 million • Gross profit margin increased to 59% • Net Income and EPS (1) increased 13% to $125 million and 19% to $1.76, respectively • Adjusted EBITDA (2) increased 10% to $220 million • Completed $181 million of share repurchases year-to-date through July 2026, up over 21% from the same period in the prior year Raising Full-Year 2026 Outlook • Revenue of $2.19 billion to $2.21 billion • Adjusted EBITDA (2) of $585 million to $600 million “Frontdoor is delivering exceptional results across all key areas of the business,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Bill Cobb.” “Full-Year 2026 Outlook • Revenue of $2.19 billion to $2.21 billion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.03 → $5.13 · observed estimates
$2.31B → $2.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.03 | $2,314,766,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.05 | $2,315,228,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.03 | $2,314,766,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.05 | $2,315,228,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.05 | $2,315,228,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.03 | $2,314,766,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.05 | $2,315,228,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.03 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.03 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.03 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.05 | $2,318,261,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.05 | $2,318,261,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.03 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.05 | $2,318,261,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.13 | $2,331,746,170 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.13 | $2,331,746,170 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.13 | $2,331,746,170 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.23 | $2,333,912,830 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.04 | $2,317,366,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.23 | $2,333,921,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.23 | $2,333,921,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.23 | $2,333,921,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.23 | $2,333,921,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.23 | $2,333,921,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.19 | $2,334,244,284 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.13 | $2,324,597,856 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.