Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$82.60-0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FTDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FTDR — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-03
Chief Accounting Officer — Sally J. Shanks: The Chief Accounting Officer is resigning to pursue other opportunities, with the CFO temporarily assuming duties, indicating a standard executive departure without reported disputes.
Why it matters: This will show if Frontdoor's growth is slowing, impacting investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline would confirm challenges in this channel and impact overall growth.
Worry ifDirect-to-consumer revenue is down over 5% from last year.
Less concerning ifDirect-to-consumer revenue stays the same or grows compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may show problems and impact spending.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $100 million in 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains above $100 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in cash from operations show how well the company makes cash. This affects growth plans.
Watch forCash from operations is above $245 million.
Also watch forCash from operations is below $240 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $315 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,923 loss on $10,000 · 29.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management believes in the company's worth. This can help earnings per share.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $60 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show trust in financial health. It also shows good capital use.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are above $181 million for 2026.
Worry ifShare buybacks are below $150 million for 2026.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations shows strong finances and good money management.
Supportive ifCash from operations is above $245 million for 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $240 million for 2026.
Why it matters: More member growth shows a strong market position. It also means better customer retention.
Supportive ifHome warranty member count goes up more than 1% each year.
Worry ifHome warranty member count growth is less than 1%.
Why it matters: Strong adjusted EBITDA means better operations. It also shows more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is at or above $197 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $197 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong demand and supports revenue growth goals.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $642 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $635 million.
Why it matters: A rise in member count shows good customer acquisition efforts.
Supportive ifReported member count growth of at least 1% in 2026.
Worry ifMember count continues to decline or remains flat in 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in non-warranty revenue shows the business is strong and diverse.
Supportive ifNon-warranty revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifNon-warranty revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows Frontdoor is managing costs well. This could lead to better overall performance.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by more than 5% from Q1.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: A strong margin shows good cost control and profit.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin is more than 26% in 2026.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 26% in 2026.