Flotek Industries, Inc. (FTK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.54-0.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FTK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FTK — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-17
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided under
Why it matters: When equipment is deployed affects how much money is made from the $400 million contract.
Supportive ifPower generation equipment and smart skids will start deploying by Q1 2027.
Worry ifIf deployment is late, it will affect how revenue is recognized.
Why it matters: High revenue growth helps the company and builds market trust.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 70% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 50% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance of $270M to $290M would show Flotek is on track for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue will be as planned for 2026. This was shared during the earnings call on August 4.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue expectations for 2026. This was announced during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Better growth in the energy sector may help Flotek's revenue.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 3% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 1% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$276 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $679 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,129 loss on $10,000 · 41.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting this EBITDA target shows strong performance. It would also help support growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is between $36 million and $41 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $36 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target confirms Flotek's growth strategy is working. It reflects strong market demand.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for 2026 reaches or exceeds $270 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue for 2026 falls below $270 million.
Why it matters: The project's status affects future revenue from a major contract. Delays or terminations could hurt growth.
Worry ifFlotek has confirmation. The PREPA contract is moving forward on time.
Less concerning ifPREPA ends the contract or stops work for an unknown time.
Why it matters: Data Analytics is a key growth area. Continued strong performance will support overall revenue goals.
Supportive ifData Analytics revenue grows year over year by at least 200% in Q3.
Worry ifData Analytics revenue growth falls below 100% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows strong progress toward the new 2026 revenue plan.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for Q3 reaches or exceeds $100 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q3 falls below $90 million.
Why it matters: This would show strong profit growth and back the 2026 EBITDA plan.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is over $12 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $10 million.