Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Forward Air Corp. (FWRD)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.08+3.70%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.24 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FWRD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations grows to at least $45.74M next quarter | Cash from operations increased from $27.62M to $45.74M. | Broken | cash from operations falls below $40M next quarter | Cash from operations: $-4.883M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=45.74 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026-4,883,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making, high-risk turnaround case in a sector facing headwinds, not a durable compounder today. The thesis is on watch: the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but financial performance remains weak and below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to FWRD being cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and shows a negative expectations gap. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not suggest that expectations are unusually vulnerable.
Near term, results may remain uneven: second-quarter consolidated operating income was a loss, including a large goodwill impairment, while adjusted operating income was positive and Expedited Freight improved year over year. Operating cash flow also swung from a positive first quarter to a use of cash in the second quarter. Retaining the largest customer has made contractual progress, but reported results do not yet confirm the revenue retained; guidance cuts and the weak sector backdrop remain risks.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on whether FWRD can turn customer-retention agreements into reported revenue and sustain better segment profitability, cost control, and cash generation. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal; continued strong results and higher guidance from UPS, FDX, and EXPD would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-3 year view, FWRD has signs of operational progress but still needs consistent reported improvement to support a stronger long-term thesis. The evidence is mixed, and execution, customer retention, and sector conditions remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Forward Air Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is net income improves by at least 30% YoY. |
| Improving |
| net income worsens or fails to improve by 10% next year |
Net income: $-207.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income improves by at least 30% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Aug 5, 2026-207,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $20.44M next quarter | Operating income rose from $4.76M to $20.44M in one year. | Broken | operating income falls below $15M next quarter | Operating income: $-201.312M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20.44 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026-201,312,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes or grows at least 3% annually | A supporting condition in Forward Air Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY. | Improving | revenue growth falls below 0% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.39 → $0.20 · observed estimates
$2.55B → $2.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.39 | $2,549,466,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.39 | $2,549,466,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.28 | $2,595,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.28 | $2,595,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.28 | $2,595,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.39 | $2,549,466,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.39 | $2,549,466,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.28 | $2,595,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.28 | $2,595,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.28 | $2,595,273,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.39 | $2,549,466,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.39 | $2,549,466,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.39 | $2,549,466,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.39 | $2,549,466,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.15 | $2,563,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.15 | $2,563,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.15 | $2,563,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.19 | $2,647,773,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.24 | $2,605,984,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.24 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.24 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.24 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.24 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.24 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.19 | $2,596,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $2,621,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $2,621,851,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $2,621,851,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $2,621,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $2,621,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.20 | $2,621,851,250 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.